Mabuza’s ‘floor crossing’ boosts Ramaphosa’s chances for presidency

Whether the new stance adopted by Mpumalanga ANC leader and premier David Mabuza to cross the floor is real or perceived, it has changed the political picture in the province and tilted the scales in Cyril Ramaphosa’s favour.

Prior to the ANC’s national policy conference (NPC), which ended on Wednesday, Mpumalanga was regarded as one of the four provinces that were indisputable rearguards for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is competing with Ramaphosa for the ANC presidency.

That was until the province’s premier showed he was not signing off the same hymn sheet as his KwaZulu-Natal, Free State and North West counterparts.

To many, his move to abandon the “premier league” might have come as a great surprise. But to those in the know politically, Mabuza had been encamped with the wrong crowd. Although his change was a long time coming, he was now where he should be.

Although Mabuza is unashamedly a Zuma supporter and delivered Mpumalanga to him in his last two terms as ANC provincial leader and premier, he maintained independence from the president and his political shenanigans.

Unlike his Free State and North West counterparts, Mabuza kept the Gupta family at bay. He shared this attitude with the premiers of Limpopo and Eastern Cape, who also refused to entertain the lure of the Gupta riches.

For his closeness to Number 1, he was wrongfully presumed to be with Ace Magashule and Supra Mahumapelo in the premier league, an informal lobby grouping for Zuma and, by extension, Dlamini-Zuma.

But the statements that Mabuza made at the NPC revealed where he actually stood.

First, he shocked everyone when he supported the diagnostic report of ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe that Zuma supporters had tried to suppress, describing it as “good”.

Second, his province was among the majority that supported the notion of “monopoly capital” instead of the label of “white monopoly capital” that the Zumites strongly pushed for at the NPC.

Mabuza’s new stance indicates that he has been successfully lobbied by Ramaphosa followers within and outside his province.

The lobbyists were aware that he was the weakest link in the premier league and he did not trust Dlamini-Zuma to become an election winner as the next ANC president.

The outspoken SACP Mpumalanga provincial secretary, Bonakele Majuba, was among those vocal in opposing the premier league and trying to convince Mabuza to cross the floor.

On the NPC sidelines he was seen caucusing with Ramaphosites such as Gauteng provincial chairperson Paul Mashatile, Eastern Cape provincial secretary Oscar Mabuyane and Limpopo provincial chairman Stanley Mathabatha. Within Mpumalanga, Mabuza received pressure from various fronts to join the Ramaphosa camp.

The South African National Civic Association (Sanco) in the province told him it would support him if he was in the Ramaphosa camp.

Sanco provincial leader James Skhosana even told Mabuza that if Mabuza agreed to come to the CR17 camp, the body would lobby for him to be Ramaphosa’s deputy in December.

Now it appears that instead of opting to become Dlamini-Zuma’s deputy as proposed by the ANC Youth League (ANCYL), Mabuza would prefer to deputise for Ramaphosa, whose image would not affect ANC fortunes negatively in 2019.

The party structures and Mabuza understood that Ramaphosa did not only have a good chance to win at the polls but, judging by his campaign message, he would be able to unite the beleaguered party.

Earlier, Mabuza told the alliance leaders in the province that, much as he had supported Zuma over the years, he did not believe Dlamini-Zuma was the right candidate to win the 2019 national election for the ANC.

He feared that Zuma’s sins would be visited on her by voters and that would put the ruling party at risk of losing power to a DA-led coalition.

Zuma has good reason to be worried about Mabuza’s latest stance. He knows his friend wields massive power and influence in the province and, without him, Dlamini-Zuma is bound to lose the ANC leadership battle to Ramaphosa.

Mabuza controls all the four regions of the ANC in Mpumalanga. All Mabuza’s ardent supporters were re-elected as regional chairpersons: Speedy Mashilo for Nkangala, Gert Sibande’s Muzi Chirwa, Bohlabela’s Gillion Mashigo and eHlanzeni’s Ngrayi Ngwenya.

His strength was boosted when his two former enemies returned to his stable. Former ANCYL deputy president Ronald Lamola has joined Mabuza after he unsuccessfully battled him for years while Cleopas Maunye of the rival Bushbuckridge Residents’ Association returned to the ANC after Mabuza had a chat with him.

Whether Mabuza will be able to sway the regions to migrate to the CR17 camp remains to be seen. But one thing is certain – they have been eating out of his hands for years. – ericn@citizen.co.za

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