The competition for leadership roles shows that the death of the ANC has been greatly exaggerated.
Frenchman Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr hit the bullseye when he coined the saying, “the more things change, the more they stay the same”. Political analysts have all been singing from the same hymn book concerning the fortunes of the “dying” ruling party, ANC.
The country waited with bated breath for the moment the ANC would drop below 50% of the overall national vote to confirm its death. That moment came in May 2024, but somehow the ANC hung on to power, technically only losing just one province, KwaZulu-Natal (the Western Cape had been gone for close to two decades already).
Although the ANC dropped from 57% of the national vote to just over 40%, it remains in power as part of the government of national unity (GNU). A huge indication that the death of the ANC has been greatly exaggerated is that competition for the pound seats within the “dead” movement remains as fierce as ever.
There is no way that the battle to replace the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, would be as intense as it is if his position was not viewed as one of real power. Every day, a new name seems to join those of secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, deputy president Paul Mashatile and outsider, mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe in the hat for the ANC presidency.
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Last week saw the defeat of current Johannesburg mayor Dada Morero by MMC for Finance in the city, Loyiso Masuku, in the battle to lead the Greater Johannesburg Region of the ANC. Just that battle alone is seen as a proxy for the battle to lead the movement nationally. Masuku, the wife of former Gauteng MEC for Health, Bandile Masuku, is aligned with the faction that currently backs the ANC’s and the country’s deputy president, Paul Mashatile.
For a political party that should be in panic mode because of its declining electoral support, the ANC is carrying on as if it is business as usual.
“This is an opportunity to lead Johannesburg and renew the ANC,” said Masuku after her election.
Like all the ruling party’s leaders, Masuku has learnt the language that keeps people in power: throwing in the word “renewal” in their campaign to be elected as well as in their victory speeches.
There is no need to dredge up all the scandals that Masuku’s faction has been embroiled in, or remind voters of the lingering “money for votes” stench that refuses to go away from the ANC’s internal elections.
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What should concern voters is that it is the same good old comrades who are leading these factions that are switching places at the top of the ANC’s leadership board. In the end, it would not have mattered if Dada Morero’s faction had won the vote or not. Change has happened with Masuku coming in, but things will stay the same for the Johannesburg voter.
And that is the script nationally as well. Leadership will change hands, but things will stay the same. This is a truth that ANC head of elections and chief whip Mdumiseni Ntuli acknowledged in the recently concluded ANC national general council in Boksburg.
Ntuli told the gathering that no one in the current ANC national executive council deserves to take over from President Cyril Ramaphosa if the ANC does not win the 2026 local government elections.
Although this might be a roundabout way of campaigning for an outsider like Patrice Motsepe for the top job, it is an admission that none in the current leadership possess the qualities to bring about real change.
An outsider might be the ANC’s only chance to ensure things do change.
