ANC’s Mabuza is still kingmaker

Finally, Mpumalanga Premier and ANC provincial chairperson David Mabuza has got what he always wanted – to be the kingmaker in the current multiheaded race for the soul of the ANC.

Mabuza is one leader who is rarely in the news headlines for any reason. He leads a marginal province that mainly comes onto our TV screens for its notorious road accidents.

The province is also brought to our lounges when SABC television correspondent Sibongile Mkani-Mpolweni brings us those hidden, terrible incidents of rape and attacks against vulnerable members of society and the marginalisation of the poor by public systems. These and other antisocial events appear to define ordinary life in Mpumalanga.

Some claim Mabuza is corrupt, but none have come forward with any evidence nor has he ever been the subject of investigation by any corruption-busting agency in nearly a decade of his reign.

That he is corrupt is a theory derived from his association with the wrong crowd in the premier league, a lobby group for President Jacob Zuma and his associates comprising the premiers of Free State, North West and Mpumalanga.

To those driving the league, he has proved to be a project that went wrong as he has danced out of step with the league’s corruption foxtrot. It is risky to defend any politician when it comes to having their hands in the till, but Mabuza appears to be incorruptible. He has refused to be captured by the Gupta family.

Now Mabuza’s province has the second highest number of delegates, at 736, to the ANC national conference in December; after KwaZulu-Natal, which has 870 of the total of 4 723.

Mabuza, who has the provincial ANC in the palm of his hand, has refused to divulge which of the seven ANC presidential candidates he is backing.

Although he is on the Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (NDZ-17) slate and, at some point, had been approached by Cyril Ramaphosa (CR- 17) to be his running mate, Mabuza has chosen the middle ground.

His numbers put him in a strong position to bargain with any of the top three candidates.

As a kingmaker, he could donate the Mpumalanga votes to whoever he liked, depending on how he would personally benefit. His approach has created a conundrum.

Although he already features as deputy president on the NDZ list, Mabuza does not want her to succeed Zuma as he believes the ANC would lose the 2019 general election if another Zuma is a candidate.

On the other hand, Ramaphosa has changed his mind about Mabuza and chosen Lindiwe Sisulu as his deputy to address the gender balance issue. Mabuza had been pronouncing the need for ANC unity and an end to slate politics.

The next strongest candidate whose campaign centres on unity is ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize.

Therefore, Mabuza would be tempted to give Mpumalanga’s votes to him, but that is a lost cause as Mkhize is not necessarily a favourite in other provinces including his home province, KwaZulu-Natal.

Logic dictates Mabuza will be left with no choice but to be self-centred and give the votes to the NDZ campaign. This would mean he has abandoned his own principle of unity and has gone for the slate.

Eric Naki.