Let the ANC keep Joburg, for now

Political parties routinely demand that their public representatives vote a certain way on most issues.

This is suited to organisations with a collectivist mindset such as the ANC or EFF. Yet, even liberal organisations such as the DA, which emphasise individual rights, forbid members to vote contrary to a caucus decision. Public reps can lose their membership and, thus, their jobs by doing so.

Bear this in mind when speculating about forthcoming motions of no confidence. On Thursday, a hybrid meeting of the National Assembly will debate a motion of no confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Although the motion was brought by the African Transformation Movement it is expected to be supported by the official opposition DA. Yet, at least one DA donor has said if the party votes for Ramaphosa’s removal, she will no longer vote DA.

Predictions that some ANC MPs will support the no-confidence motion are dubious. There will be no secret ballot to shield dissenters, who could lose their salaries if they vote the wrong way.

In Johannesburg, there is clamour for a vote of no confidence in mayor Geoff Makhubo after questionable financial arrangements were disclosed at the Commission of Inquiry into State Capture.

You’d think the DA must support any vote of no confidence in an ANC mayor. A chess player’s perspective might be different. What would be the next move?

Consider the state of the parties. Out of 270 possible seats, there are 268 because two DA ward councillors resigned. Unlike proportional representation councillors, ward councillors cannot be replaced from a party list. February by-elections will be contested in wards 7 and 17.

The total number of councillors expected to support a no-confidence vote in Makhubo is 131 (DA 98, EFF 30, PA 2, VF-plus 1). The governing coalition of 137 would presumably oppose the motion (ANC 123, IFP 5, AIC 4, Al Jamah 2, Cope 1, ACDP 1, UDM 1).

Given those numbers, the ANC could replace Makhubo with another candidate if it wished. If the DA wanted to form a governing coalition, it would have to woo some of the smaller parties but could not function without the EFF. Crucially, the ANC can govern without the EFF.

For many DA councillors and supporters, dependence on the EFF is a toxic no-no, based on experiences during the tenure of Herman Mashaba, whom the EFF described as their mayor.

If it ended up leading a coalition government in Johannesburg this term, the DA would be associated with everything that’s wrong with the city right now. Yet the party would lack the numerical clout to imprint the trademark “DA difference” evident in well-run municipalities such as Cape Town and Midvaal.

Power at any price can be negative if it tarnishes a party’s reputation.

Whatever happens during a vote of no confidence in Makhubo, I hope the ANC stays in power until the 2021 local government elections. The DA can’t be associated with the current chaos.

Far better to aim higher, for an outright win in 2021. To govern Africa’s greatest city on the DA’s terms, not the EFF’s, the party will need a lot more votes. Including yours.

Martin Williams, DA councillor and former editor of The Citizen.

Editor’s note: Following the publication of this column, ActionSA requested a right of reply. It can be read here.

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