A powerful weather system may deliver icy conditions, strong winds and snowfall as temperatures plunge across the country.
Weather experts are monitoring a cold front and possible cut-off low that could bring snow to several provinces. Picture: iStock
There is still a slight chance of snow in the interior of the country, with a strong cold front expected to bring widespread rain, strong winds and much colder conditions, followed by a possible cut-off low.
Weather Hooligan forecaster Juandre Vorster said though the chances of snow in the interior were subsiding, people shouldn’t rule out snow just yet.
Snow prospects remain uncertain
“At this stage, I still believe snow is on the cards this coming long weekend, especially over the higher-lying areas, with the mountain regions the best bet. Whether the snow spreads further into the interior will depend on how the cut-off low develops in a day or two,” he said.
Vorster added the next cold front, expected between 8 and 10 August, could still bring snow, including to Gauteng.
Frost and extreme cold temperatures are expected and may reach Joburg on 12 or 13 August.
“All farmers should be ready for temperatures to drop below zero as well in the interior, and farmers in the northern parts of South Africa, which could experience 1ºC to 2ºC,” he added.
Weather models show varying outcomes
Vox Weather meteorologist Annette Botha said forecast models indicate a potentially significant cold system from Sunday onwards.
“A strong cold front may bring widespread rain, strong winds and much colder conditions, followed by a possible cut-off low. Some model guidance suggests freezing levels could drop low enough for snow in parts of all nine provinces,” she said.
“Only the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is showing possible snow over Gauteng, while the other major models are not, Botha said.
“Cut-off lows and snow are difficult to predict this far ahead, as even a small change in the system’s path, strength, temperature or moisture could completely change the expected snowfall areas.
“We have just experienced a relatively warm winter and a dry one in the Cape due to a lack of cold fronts making landfall. It is important to remember we consistently state that El Niño does not play a major or direct role in the Western Cape’s winter rainfall,” said Botha.
El Niño not driving winter conditions
“Our winter weather is primarily determined by other largescale climate systems, such as the position of the intertropical convergence zone, the strength and location of the South Atlantic high-pressure system and the phase of the Southern Annular Model, which influences how easily cold fronts reach the southwestern part of the country.”
Botha said this winter, fewer cold fronts actually reached the Western Cape, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
“This does not necessarily mean El Niño is already the cause. El Niño’s influence is usually much more apparent during spring and summer, when it begins to affect rainfall and temperatures across the summer rainfall regions. Therefore, we cannot regard this winter as proof of a developing El Niño,” she said.
