Will Ramaphosa gamble with South Africa’s future?

One would think that, in what could be the Last Chance Saloon for South Africa in Washington today, President Cyril Ramaphosa won’t have many cards to play in the game of diplomatic poker – because President Donald Trump holds all the aces.

The United States may be South Africa’s second-biggest trading partner, but it is hardly a blip on America’s trade radar, so what would Ramaphosa be able to offer to entice or placate Trump?

Some believe Ramaphosa should do the sort of deal done by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and hand over our supposed vast resources.

Reality check: SA’s natural resources are dwindling and the rapidly changing nature of global technology means our minerals are now not as critical to the West as they were during the Cold War.

Nor can we claim to be important because we sit astride the critical Cape Sea Route, which has assumed more importance in recent years because of the trouble in the Red Sea region.

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We lack the military resources to either protect, or threaten, anybody. One US Navy aircraft carrier group would overwhelm us before you could say “outgunned and outclassed.”

To escape relatively unscathed from the encounter with Trump – or to avoid further serious pressure from Washington – Ramaphosa will be forced to consider making some public gesture.

He may say he will place farm murders at the top of his priority list; he may even bend black ownership rules to allow Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate here.

But it is highly unlikely he will commit political suicide by rolling back on the alleged scores of race-linked laws, which are a major reason some whites feel they are persecuted.

Nor will he change course on Israel. Ramaphosa dare not bluff or raise the stakes, because it would be South Africa’s future he’d be gambling with.

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