Gauteng appears ready to relax lockdown, but virus peak could come later – committee

Gauteng appears ready to relax lockdown regulations, according to the provincial government’s advisory committee.

The committee announced this during the provincial coronavirus command council’s weekly update on Thursday.

According to the committee’s Professor Bruce Mellado, models and infection trajectories for the province point to a decline of the infection rate.

Mellado said while it was safer to start now with opening up and relaxing regulations, it needed to be done in a phased way and slowly.

He said while the province was able to handle the first significant surge from June, there was still the possibility of other surges. He said non-pharmaceutical interventions continued to be needed.

“The relaxation of lockdown is a complex matter. It is very clear that whatever relaxation or whatever configuration of that relaxation takes place, they be performed gradually and in a phased way. Overconfidence, unfortunately, at many times doesn’t pay off,” Mellado said.

As of 12 August, the province had 194 685 confirmed cases, 39 863 being active and 152 061 recoveries; with 2 761 deaths recorded.

Mellado said the committee had devised two scenarios – an optimistic and pessimistic one.

Screenshot of Gauteng Provincial Advisory Committee Covid-19 projections.

He said the optimistic scenario would push the peak back to December and January 2021, while the pessimistic outlook would see it in November and December.

Mellado said the mild peak in the pessimistic scenario was about 20% higher in amplitude than the optimistic one.

Schools

Speaking on the impact of the full reopening of schools at the end of August, Mellado said the peak would be brought forward and a maximum number of cases would double.

“This basically speaks to the fact that more changes in policy or behaviour do have a powerful impact in outcomes. So, everything that we do has to be done in a phased and a gradual way,” he said.

Screenshot of Gauteng Provincial Advisory Committee Covid-19 projections.

If the country moved from lockdown Level 3 to Level 2 at the end of August, a peak would be seen, with the maximum number of active cases in the province surpassing 400 000 at any given time by November and would start slowing down from December moving to January next year, Mellado said.

He emphasised that this was why it was important that whatever decisions were taken on relaxing the lockdown, that it be done slowly and gradually.

Dr Mary Kawonga, who is leading the provincial Covid-19 advisory committee, said it was important to note that there was good news, but that vigilance, however, remained essential.

Kawonga said there was no doubt that indeed there was a reduction in infections in the province and depending on the scenario that would be adopted, the epidemic curve would be flatter, and wider than previously projected.

She said the latest model showed that the peak had moved by two months and would occur later, around November.

Kawonga added the data indicated that there seemed to be an increase in physical distancing and use of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

“But, as I mentioned earlier, the epidemic is still progressing. It is not yet under control. The bottom line, however, is that we should expect another surge in numbers,” Kawonga said.

She emphasised that people should not let their guard down and must allow themselves to be led by science to keep the pandemic in check.

The experts have also advised that the adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions be reinforced, particularly by individuals in poorer communities.

They emphasised that even though lockdown would be relaxed, it did not mean that the use of masks must taper off and that there be no physical distancing.

They also advised there was a need to continue strengthening hospital capacity, including the provision of beds in preparation for the predicted later peaks and post-Covid-19.

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