Is Eskom close to meltdown? Experts paint grim picture

Despite multiple promises that South Africa would get rid of load shedding in time for the festive season, experts have argued that statistics have painted a rather bleak picture, with 2023 being the worst year with blackouts which might cost the ANC “an arm and a leg” at the 2024 national election.

Energy analyst Linda Alexandre said South Africans have started to notice the holes in Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa’s story.

“He’s not being transparent about the extent of the damage and crisis. We have been singing the same song for so long, let the private sector come into play because we are clearly failing.

“People have been experiencing way more than stage 6 and that has happened throughout the year,” she added.

December load shedding

Another energy analyst Lungile Mashele concurred, and said the Eskom outlook shows load shedding every day, and nothing will change this December.

“Bar a few days where demand may drop, e.g. Christmas [Day] then midday load shedding maybe suspended,” she said.

ALSO READ: Eskom drops load shedding from stage 6 to lower stages – Here’s your schedule for the week

Mashele said despite this, Eskom will definitely recover, “a power system is a minute-by-minute system and should be seen in that context.

“Shortfalls are also momentary and not the whole day. Eskom’s load shedding is a function of the following: The desperate need for ramping capacity especially to meet the evening peak. Eskom is also burning a lot of diesel to meet the dispatchability and flexibility the system currently requires,” she added.

“The second is ambient temperatures. Basically ambient temperatures affect plant performance. In extremely hot ambient temperatures units are more susceptible to breakdowns. The big impact is the cooling system that gets affected and will reduce plant output. It affects the efficiency of the cooling system.

“There’s then less power on the grid. The current heatwave, especially in the Lowveld, has a dire impact on the Eskom coal fleet.”

Weather

Mashele said the current El Niño season’s higher temperatures, high humidity and reduced rainfall will affect Eskom “for the foreseeable future”. She said: “Higher stages of load shedding cannot be ruled out as Eskom grapples with uncharacteristic increased demand (29GW), and increased unplanned outages.”

Yesterday, Ramokgopa said the power utility has seen a significant improvement in its generating capacity due the return of some generating units which were lost to service, and the replenishment of emergency reserves at the pumped storage and Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) power stations.

Because of this, Eskom moved from stage 6 to 4 yesterday. Stage 3 came into effect at 5am and will alternative with stage 4 in the afternoons until Thursday.

Exacerbated power cuts

In a series of Tweets, energy analysts Chris Yelland and Prof Anton Eberhard shared that power cuts in “South Africa in 2023 were more than double those in 2022, the previous worst year on record”.

Eberhard said: “Finally, after 15 years of avoiding the obvious, government will break up failing Eskom and create a power market.”

Yelland said load shedding trends from 2019 to date have been the worst. “[Last year] was a terrible year for load shedding, but 2023 is much worse, with much higher levels of stages 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6,” he said.

“I am experiencing 10 hours of load shedding per day for two days now (Saturday and yesterday). According to NRS 048-9 this is consistent with stage 8 load shedding.

“I wonder what is really going on here with Eskom and City Power. Actually, if I take into account the extra 30 minutes for each load shed incident in Craighall today, as per the official load shedding schedule, I will have 12.5 hours of load shedding today.”

ALSO READ: ‘We were never at stage 8,’ says electricity minister as Joburg residents cry foul