ANC toeing Cyril’s line as they prepare for do-or-die 2024 elections

The political calm in the ANC after the storm of Nasrec is indicative of the power of the party’s branches – and that they have had enough of slate politics, which has forced the party’s warring factions to be humble and loyal, an expert has said.

At the same time, the lull in the enmity within party ranks also shows that President Cyril Ramaphosa has worked himself into such a dominant position in ANC and the country that he faces no real opposition, said another.

ANC peace ‘not surprising’

Political analyst Dr Levy Ndou said the current peace within the ANC, following the party’s national conference last December, should not be surprising because the conference succeeded to highlight the hegemony of the branches in these conferences.

Instead of electing according to slates, the delegates chose to go according to their branch mandates and mainly defied the slates they were given, Ndou said.

Besides, the transparency displayed by the ANC electoral committee, headed by Kgalema Motlanthe, helped to deal with slate-based ambitions by some leaders.

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Ndou cited examples of Limpopo ANC provincial chair Stanley Mathabatha, who switched from Ramaphosa and supported his challenger, Zweli Mkhize, as well as the failure of the presidential hopeful, Lindiwe Sisulu, to be nominated. Sisulu could not make it even via nomination from the conference floor.

The one group that intended to take Motlanthe’s committee to court over irregularities in nominations had realised the prospect of losing the case and withdrew.

Ndou said these candidates and others lost because the delegates were unprepared to deviate from their branch mandates.

The electoral committee was able to pre-empt challenges in the nomination process by collecting data about how many votes each candidates received. That way, even if some went to court to challenge the nominations, the chances were that they would lose because of the availability of data and clarity that the committee gave about the process.

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“The process and the role of the branches humbled them. They had no leg to stand on: everything was said and done at the conference. That conference communicated the wishes of the branches to everyone and they were forced to be loyal,” Ndou said.

Ramaphosa’s dominant role

Prof Dirk Kotzé, politics professor from the University of South Africa, said the calm was also due to Ramaphosa’s dominant role as a leader post-Nasrec and the isolation of his opponents, such as members of the radical economic transformation (RET) group within the party.

The faction loyal to former president Jacob Zuma was no longer a factor and Ramaphosa faced little to no opposition, save former president Thabo Mbeki’s recent criticism about Phala Phala and the Eskom situation.

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Kotzé said the ANC was merely worried about its performance in the 2024 national election which was a “do or die” for the party.

“They know they may lose the majority. It is in their interest to avoid squabbles and show unity towards 2024. The general sentiments is negative for the ANC and they should protect their position,” Kotzé said.

Transparency

Ndou said transparency in the electoral committee’s work had silenced all those who might have challenged the process and forced them to submit to the party’s rules and accept the outcomes.

“One thing the ANC managed to achieve was to fight slate politics at the conference. This was more a conference of delegates and they stamped their authority on it and wanted to deliver on their mandates from the branches. That conference taught us leaders to not speak on behalf of the branches but the branches speak for themselves,” Ndou said.

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“There were, as usual, people who were guaranteed positions but the delegates went according to their choices – and that was why many top leaders did not make it into the party’s national executive committee.

“Some thought they would be elected but the branches were saying: ‘You do your part, but this is what we think should happen’,” Ndou said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za