ANC fires warning shots against defiant MPs planning to vote against Ramaphosa

The ANC has sent a clear message to its members – defy and vote against President Cyril Ramaphosa and you will face the music.

Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the decision by Luthuli House to make an example of its notorious rebel, Carl Niehaus, who has been expelled on the eve of a crucial vote to impeach or not to impeach Ramaphosa, was deliberate and a message to those who planned to defy the party and vote to impeach the president.

“I have already appealed the travesty of justice of my illegal expulsion by the ANC national disciplinary committee. Because I have appealed the farcical expulsion is suspended. I remain a full member of [the ANC],” Niehaus said.

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Not only the Niehaus matter, but also the party’s decision to disqualify radical economic transformation (RET) members Bathabile Dlamini and Tony Yengeni from standing as ANC NEC members was a message directed at members of parliament who plan to defy the ANC instruction to reject the anti-Ramaphosa motion in parliament.

“This is to say ‘we fear no one, we will act against you’,” the analyst said.

Breakfast said if the ANC wanted to expel Niehaus, it could have done so a long time ago because he defied the party for so long. But they waited for this moment.

“That is deliberate to warn and convey a message that the ANC is not afraid of anyone. This is to say ‘back off’, this is psychological warfare and a way to threaten your opponent. The timing of Carl’s expulsion is deliberate. Why did they wait until now?” Breakfast said.

He said as the parliamentary vote would be an open ballot, MPs would be scared to vote against the president.

“It will be very difficult for MPs to defy and risk being expelled. Some ministers would fear losing their jobs because Ramaphosa might win in Nasrec and they don’t know what will happen to their careers,” Breakfast said.

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He doubted if Ministers Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu would take the risk – instead they could abstain from voting. The expert said it wouldn’t be a surprise if ANC MPs like Supra Mahumapelo and Mervin Dirks were the only ones who voted in favour of the motion to impeach Ramaphosa.

Last week, the NEC resolved to reject the motion by the African Transformation Movement (ATM) that the report be accepted – and ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe said they expected all ANC MPs to vote against it on Tuesday.

Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotzé said since the vote would be by open ballot, few ANC MPs would risk by voting in favour of the motion, submitted by the two-member ATM.

He said National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula was not obliged to apply a secret ballot in the motion because there was a standing court ruling that the speaker could use her discretion on the matter. The court ruled on an application by the same ATM which demanded a secret ballot.

Mahumapelo, who is chair of the portfolio committee on tourism, and Dirks, a fellow ANC MP, publicly expressed their intention to vote against Ramaphosa. Dirks had publicly rallied ANC MPs to vote against Ramaphosa.

At the weekend, the daring Dirks challenged ANC national chair Gwede Mantashe, who warned party MPs of consequences should they vote against the president. In response to a Sunday World article, Dirks said: “The speaker of parliament has a constitutional duty to protect all MPs against such threats and unconstitutional utterances.”

ALSO READ: ‘I was not sent to Parliament to do unethical things’: ANC MPs could vote against Ramaphosa over Phala Phala

Dirks was previously suspended for calling on standing committee on public accounts chair Mkhuleko Hlengwa to probe Ramaphosa’s failure to divulge that he knew about those who funded his campaign for the 2017 Nasrec elective conference.

It’s not clear how other RET politicians within the ANC caucus would vote, but the writing is on the wall for defiers.

Although Sisulu and Dlamini-Zuma, both former presidential candidates, had called on Ramaphosa to step aside over Phala Phala, it was unlikely they would vote against him. Even Deputy President David Mabuza, whom Ramaphosa did not endorse as his deputy, would avoid acting against his boss, who is set to be re-elected for a second term.

Any defiance vote by Mabuza, Sisulu and Dlamini-Zuma, as senior party members, would carry more weight than that of known Ramaphosa enemies like Mahumapelo and Dirks.

Significantly, observers believed, if such a move were to happen, it would cause permanent damage to the relationships of Ramaphosa, his deputy and the two ministers.

Ramaphosa was found by the Section 89 panel to have a case to answer regarding the theft of US dollars allegedly stuffed in a couch at his Phala Phala farm in 2020.

He denied any wrongdoing and has since taken the matter to the Constitutional Court for a judicial review.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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