By-election boost for PA

The victory by Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance in two ward by-elections in the Western Cape on Wednesday is an indication of its growing popularity and political consolidation in a DA-dominated province.

In the same breath, the results were a sign of how the DA’s factionalism and its participation in the GNU is beginning to impact its electoral fortunes, say experts.

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PA wins in George

In George, Western Cape PA’s Raphael John Goeieman scooped ward 17 with 59.98% of the total votes cast.

The seat was previously held by the DA in the 2021 local elections with 39.86% of the votes. This time, the party got 38% Wednesday’s voter turnout was 54.07%.

PA’s Marchell Elton Frederick Kleynhans won ward 27 poll in the George, a seat previously held by the Good party in the 2021. Kleynhans won with 51.35% and a voter turnout was 55.08%.

In Tshwane, the DA’s Johannes Lodewicus Page retained ward 57 which it took in 2021.

But the DA’s votes dropped to 53.20% compared with 59.01% in the 2021, with this week’s voter turnout 21.04%.

PA takes DA on

Experts said the by-election results showed the DA faced a growing challenge from the PA in the Western Cape, while the Freedom Front Plus is posing a big challenge in Gauteng.

The party commended the PA’s performance and noted how it came at the GOOD party’s expense in George.

Policy analyst and election monitor, Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said for the PA, winning the by-election seats is significant in local and provincial politics.

Election policy and performance analyst Michael Atkins said the PA is consolidating their position politically.

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DA still standing

However, Atkins said that the PA numbers in both George wards won by it did not show a decline for the DA. Also the wins essentially came from GOOD party and Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI) not contesting the byelections.

“It is difficult to assess what will happen in the local government election, when all parties must field candidates in all wards.

“It is also difficult to predict how the prior GOOD support will go, with the new Unite party.

“There could be a good deal of local and personality politics affecting the outcomes in the Western Cape councils,” Atkins said.

Growth in voters support

Nyembezi said the by-election meant choosing between a long-standing affinity for the DA, and PA politicians who had represented the area in different capacities for many years.

It was a deeply familiar presence in the community. The turnout was relatively higher and the margins were narrow.

“This indicates growth in voter support for the two parties. [But] the absence of GOOD and PBI from the ballot continued to favour the PA, which not only won over these voters but also energised new voters and boosted its fortunes,” Nyembezi said.

ANC support declines

He said while by-election results have limits as long-term trend indicators, they continue to confirm declining ANC support.

They predict how the next local government elections will shape the long-term balance of power in several municipalities.

“While the DA continues to dominate in its traditional strongholds, it faces a challenge from the FF+ in several provinces, as it struggles to deal with internal faction fights and the dynamics of being part of the government of national unity,” Nyembezi said.

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