Cyril’s enemies ready to pounce, say analysts

President Cyril Ramaphosa may be on the way to winning the fight against Covid-19 – but he may be up against new enemies outside the ANC and old enemies inside the governing party.

Political analysts said the move to Level 2 would not help Ramaphosa in any way because his government had lost credibility due to corruption that occurred during the lockdown.

However, one expert said Ramaphosa remained a saviour to many South Africans because of his anti-Covid-19 campaign, no matter what.

The move to Level 2 of the lockdown which would see interprovincial and family visits allowed from midnight, could open the floodgates for those defeated at the ANC Nasrec conference to continue strategising and attempt to oust him.

His new enemies may be those let down by the ANC. These are a combination of ordinary people disgruntled about corruption around personal protective equipment and the theft of food parcels, and business frustrated by the long ban on liquor and tobacco sales.

Political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga had no doubt that the factionalism would intensify because the move to Level 2 and further easing of restrictions would enable organising by factions against each other.

“Travelling across provinces will allow further organisation and intensification of factionalism within the ANC. Of course. people are going to talk and there will be more interaction. The divisive politics of the party will continue to rear its ugly hear,” Mathekga said.

He said the lockdown politics would spill over into the ANC succession debate going forward. It is understood advocates of Radical Economic Transformation planned to revive their campaign to oust Ramaphosa.

It included a march to Luthuli House to demand an end to corruption under him and reasons for the non-implementation of the Nasrec resolution.

Earlier, the same group raised a motion of no confidence against him at the then scheduled national general council (NGC) in June/July, but the plot was botched, with the Covid-19 outbreak forcing the NGC to be postponed.

With lockdown restrictions eased including lifting of the ban on inter-provincial family visits, the battle is on again.

“#VoetsekCyril” has been circulating on social media since the outbreak of the Gauteng PPE contract scandal implicating Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Khusela Diko and her husband.

The campaign idea, run along the Bell Pottinger lines, with use of pseudonyms and leaks to some media houses, was to portray Ramaphosa being divisive and worse than Zuma when it came to corruption.

With their own image discredited, it could be difficult for them to convince South Africans that Zuma was better. But ANC battles are fought and lost or won within the party as demonstrated with Thabo Mbeki’s removal at Polokwane.

Therefore, vox populi could not determine the outcome of ANC politics. The supporters of Jacob Zuma made no qualm about their dissatisfaction with Ramaphosa’s leadership.

A staunch Zuma backer and an ally of ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, Carl Niehaus said under Ramaphosa, Nasrec resolutions such as land expropriation without compensation were ignored.

Professor Andre Duvenhage said Ramaphosa is more under pressure within the ANC despite his positive announcements.

He said the president’s Nasrec opponents continued to plot against him with the idea of ousting him, but they will struggle to do it because he has public support.

“I think the knives are out for him, he is a bigger target now within the ANC,” Duvenhage said.

At the same time, the Covid-19 situation has, to a large extent, worked to his advantage, both in the ANC and the country.

“Ramaphosa has come into gear with the investigations around the Zondo commission and other probes as the actions against mayors and municipal managers indicate,” said Duvenhage.

Mathekga said the Level 2 will not help Ramaphosa because Covid-19 was not of his making.

“Labour and government are united against the government’s insistence of hard lockdown and the president could not move.

“There is also the question of credibility where people go to court to challenge lockdown restrictions,” he said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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