Mixed Top 6 likely to emerge from ANC elective conference

This weekend’s much anticipated African National Congress (ANC) elective conference is expected to be a close contest.

This is according to political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage, who is also of the opinion that while the sitting president Cyril Ramaphosa remains the favourite, it won’t be easy for him.

This week Ramaphosa escaped an impeachment inquiry.

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Duvenhage says the fact that there are some in the ANC who showed their unhappiness about Ramaphosa’s leadership when they voted yes for an impeachment process to be instituted against him over the theft of money that took place at his Phala Phala farm in 2020, could leave the party with yet another mixed Top 6.

Duvenhage says it will be interesting to see where somebody like Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who led the rebellion in Parliament, positions herself.

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“Because if it is Zweli Mkhize, Dlamini-Zuma as well as Lindiwe Sisulu and maybe a trump card in a person like Paul Mashatile because he is a very dark horse, then they will be able to be a formidable front against Ramaphosa.

“Ramaphosa is without any doubt weakened in comparison to a few weeks back and the legal processes with regards to Phala Phala have not yet ended and we’ve heard the viewpoints of Julius Malema, I’m expecting a continuation of legal processes…the battle is by no means over,” Duvenhage said.

He said even in the event that Ramaphosa gets elected for another term this weekend, he will still be faced by the legal battles.

“I think in a way the process that will play out in the next week, is going to be very decisive for the ANC as an organization and how it will perform and contest the 2024 general election considering the fact that things are not looking good for the party at the moment and a divided ANC from the conference will put extra pressure on them,” Duvenhage added.

Another political analyst, Prof. Dirk Kotze, says the fact that Ramaphosa emerged unscathed from this week’s parliamentary process, means that none of the political contenders including Mkhize, Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu is in a better position.

“There is no way significant nominations are going to take place from the floor and therefore if people like Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu really want to make an impact, they would have to work with nominations that exist already.

“The fact that Sisulu was absent in Parliament this week is one of the worst decisions she could have taken as it undermines her credibility completely and the same to some extent with Mkhize,” he said.

Where do Mkhize and Sisulu stand with Ramaphosa?

“It is clear they didn’t want to commit themselves but if you want to be a leader, you have to make difficult decisions.

“So this a serious disqualification for both of them and it counts in favour of Ramaphosa and I think it’s back to square one for the nominations that were made public by the ANC’s electoral commission…no other sort of teams that come together or combination, it’s far too late for them, it’s not going to happen,” Kotze added.

Meanwhile, at its special general council meeting held on Wednesday, chairperson of the ANC in Gauteng Panyaza Lesufi made it clear that their preferred choice for the position of deputy president is Paul Mashatile, who is the treasurer-general and acting secretary-general of the ANC.

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However, it appears the ANC in Gauteng is still divided on their preferred candidate for the position of president, with some reportedly wanting Mkhize and others Ramaphosa for another term.