Ramaphosa faces key test in parliament

Thursday’s no-confidence vote in the National Assembly against President Cyril Ramaphosa is a critical litmus test of ANC unity, as well as an indicator of how new alliances and rivalries will develop in South African politics.

Despite being plagued by factional battles and leadership squabbles, ANC MPs are tomorrow unlikely to vote in support of the African Transformation Movement (ATM)-sponsored motion of no confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa, according to two leading political analysts.

Citing Ramaphosa’s failure to disclose to parliament that he benefitted financially from his 2017 ANC presidential campaign, the ATM brought the motion of no confidence against the president in February, but it was delayed due to the coronavirus lockdown.

Commenting on Ramaphosa’s first parliamentary motion of no confidence since taking over the reins of presidency from Jacob Zuma in 2018, University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze pooh-poohed the tabling as “a sideshow”, while independent political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga, described it as “a stress test on the presidency”.

Said Kotze: “This is a bit of a sideshow. Even if parliament was to accede to the ATM request of a secret ballot, it would not make a difference. The fact that the DA won’t support the motion means it won’t fly.

“The ANC will take a caucus decision to support Ramaphosa, rendering this as no big moment. The ANC will certainly decide to consolidate rather than being part of an ATM vote of no confidence in the president.

“Ramaphosa is not in the same situation as Zuma, when there was a high degree of polarisation in the country.”

Although Mathekga conceded the ANC was riddled by factionalism, he said the party would not “hand over its internal processes to a third party – but will defend the president”.

“The ATM, a very insignificant party, will get what they wanted – to be in the headlines.

“The most important thing is how this motion can be seen as a stress test on the presidency – how Ramaphosa’s detractors within the ANC will come to his defence,” said Mathekga.

“There is an insinuation that if it is a secret ballot, members of the ANC will be able to express themselves. We have seen this with Zuma – some ANC MPs might be angry at the president, but I don’t think they will do something stupid in the run-up to next year’s elections.

“ANC members hate being out of power, which is what the success of this motion would spell. No matter how angry, they will not vote him out of power.”

Mathekga said it was “too early to propose such a motion when the president was not even halfway through his term”.

Amid threats of legal action by the ATM, should the motion not be held through a secret ballot, National Assembly Speaker Thandi Modise yesterday declined a request for secret voting by MPs.

“The speaker has the powers in terms of the constitution to prescribe how voting in a motion of no confidence in the president may be conducted – taking into consideration prevailing pertinent factors,” said parliamentary spokesperson Moloto Mothapo.

“The Constitutional Court in 2017 indicated that a secret ballot becomes necessary where the prevailing atmosphere is toxified or highly charged.

“The ATM has not offered proof of a highly charged atmosphere, intimidation of any member or any demonstrable evidence of threats against the lives of members and their families.”

– brians@citizen.co.za

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