‘SA should gear up for the post-Trump administration’

South Africa is wasting its time attempting to negotiate a deal to reduce trade tariffs with the Trump administration, an expert says.

Instead, Pretoria should look beyond President Donald Trump, who will be out of the White House in three years, while the Republican Party is set to lose power in the US anyway, says Dominic Maphaka, a lecturer in political studies and international relations at North-West University.

‘Republicans unlikely to retain victory’

It is unlikely that SA could reach a tariff deal with the US amid the current political developments, he said.

“Trump’s statement is informed by non-scientific and racist views that South Africa should stop bothering about, or trying to overexplain itself. If anything, South Africa should gear up for the post-Trump administration.

“Government comes and goes and Republicans are unlikely to retain victory because Trump is running the US through decisions that are often non-scientific,” Maphaka said.

At the weekend, Trump posted on Truth Social, expressing disapproval that SA is hosting the G20 summit and announcing that no official from the US would be dispatched to it.

He cited the alleged genocide against whites and land expropriation.

ALSO READ: Trump posts another swipe at SA, says G20 host nation a ‘total disgrace’

This raised concern about whether Trump would approve a reduction of the 30% tariff he has imposed on South African exports to the US.

The SA government has been meeting senior US officials for several months now to get that reduced.

SA’s future in Trump’s looming G20 presidency

Although Trump is boycotting the G20 and has not availed himself to receive the baton of its presidency from the outgoing G20 president, Cyril Ramaphosa, he said he looked forward to hosting the summit in Miami in 2026.

Questions are being raised about whether Trump will permit South Africa to attend this summit.

However, the G20 is not under US control as it is an international forum for economic cooperation comprising 19 countries, the European Union and the African Union, and it accounts for about 85% of global GDP.

The EU, AU and the global south nations, as the G20, would oppose any attempt to exclude SA and Trump would have to accept that.

‘Trump’s behaviour is erratic’

University of the Witwatersrand professor John Stremlau, an expert on US foreign policy, said Trump’s decision not to send any official to the G20 summit, from 22-23 November in Johannesburg “is definitely a setback but also an opportunity for SA to show leadership”.

ALSO READ: Trump’s G20 summit boycott triggers political storm in South Africa

On the question of US-SA tariff negotiations, Stremlau said: “In light of the Democratic sweep last Tuesday, I hope some Republican legislators show bipartisan support for lowering the tariff of 30% Trump imposed on SA, but I am no trade expert.”

Delving into Trump’s personal background, he said: “Although Trump’s behaviour is erratic, one thing he learned from his dad is to be a pro-white nationalist and to be suspicious of liberals, and that bullies succeed.”

He said that since reading Trump’s Executive Order 3 (EO3) on South Africa, issued on 7 February 2025, which was “full of misinformation”, he knew there would be a troubled bilateral relationship between the countries.

He said the EO3 had only two policies: cutting off all aid and assistance to South Africa and welcoming Afrikaner refugees at a time when he was denying refugee status to other people of colour.

When Trump announced that he would send Vice-President JD Vance to the G20, Stremlau was sceptical it would happen.

“But now this has been settled, I am interested to see how the G20 members respond.

“Will they downgrade their participation in the Miami Summit in 2026, skip it, or pick another country as president of the 2026 G20?”

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