When will Ramaphosa announce the elections? Here’s what the data says

The general elections in South Africa are scheduled to take place this year, with the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), political parties, and citizens calling on the president to announce their date.

These will be the seventh general elections post-apartheid.

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The IEC is hosting its last voter registration drive over the weekend. However, President Cyril Ramaphosa has yet to announce the date of the upcoming elections.

On Tuesday, at the ANC NEC Lekgotla, Ramaphosa assured the nation that he would be announcing the election date soon.

What does the legislation say? When must the elections be?

The elections must be held within 90 days of the end of the term of the current Parliament, on 3 May 2024.

“The National Assembly is elected for a term of five years. If the National Assembly is dissolved in terms of section 50, or when its term expires, the President, by proclamation must call and set dates for an election, which must be held within 90 days of the date the Assembly was dissolved or its term expired.

“A proclamation calling and setting dates for an election may be issued before or after the expiry of the term of the National Assembly,” the constitution reads.

The announcement will include the date of the elections and details on the voting process.

When have previous elections dates been announced?

• 2019: President Ramaphosa announced the date on 7 February during the annual State of the Nation Address (Sona).
• 2014: President Jacob Zuma announced the election date on 7 February.
• 2009: President Kgalema Motlanthe announced the election date on 4 February.
• 2004: President Thabo Mbeki announced the election on 12 February.
• 1999: President Mandela announced the election date on 3 February.
• 1994: President FW de Klerk announced the election date on 6 February.

Based on this data, the elections will likely be announced next week.

President Ramaphosa will give his Sona address next week on Thursday 8 February. Many are anticipating he might kill two birds with one stone and announce the election date on the same day.

Politicial analyst Lesiba Teffo told The Citizen, this was most likely.

“I think come next week. Maybe Sona on the 8th. He usually announces the date during this address. It is almost certain it will be next week.”

Presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya would not be drawn on when the president would announce the elections.

When have the previous elections been held?

• 2019: The elections were held on Wednesday 8 May. The ANC got 57.50% of the total votes, with the DA 20.77%, and EFF 10.80%. Voter turnout was 66.05 %.
• 2014: The elections were held on Wednesday 7 May. The ANC got 62.15% of the total votes, with the DA 22.23%, and EFF 6.35%. Voter turnout was 73.48 %.
• 2009: The elections were held on Wednesday 22 April. The ANC got 65.90% of the total votes, with the DA 16.66%, and COPE 7.42%. Voter turnout was 77.3 %.
• 2004: The elections were held on Wednesday 14 April. The ANC got 69.69% of the total votes, with the DA 12.37%, and IFP 6.97%. Voter turnout was 76.73 %.
• 1999: The elections were held on Wednesday 2 June. The ANC got 66.35% of the total votes, with the DP 9.56%, and IFP 8.58%. Voter turnout was 89.3 %.
• 1994: The elections were held between Tuesday 26 and Friday 29 April. The ANC got 62.65% of the total votes, with the NP 20.39%, and IFP 10.54%. Voter turnout was 86.87%.

Based on this data, the elections will likely be held in mid-April to early May. The last two elections have been held on Wednesday during the second week of May. If this pattern continues, elections may be held on Wednesday, 8 May.

However, this will be less than a week after parliament’s term has ended.

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Teffo said he believes the election will be held within three months of Ramaphosa’s announcement.

“After the announcement, I think it will happen within three months,” he said.

Teffo said some countries looked at environmental factors, like weather, and infrastructure to determine when elections can be held.

“In our case, that doesn’t apply. It is the constitution that prescribes the date.”

IEC raises concerns about the date

The Citizen reported on Friday that the IEC was worried about the amount of time it would have to prepare for the elections if Ramaphosa does not make an announcement on the date soon.

It said it had given Ramaphosa as much information as it could to help him decide on the date, and stressed the need to finalise parties participating, preparing ballot papers, and logistics at voting stations.

EFF leader Julius Malema, earlier this week, called on Ramaphosa to announce the date soon so it could plan his exit.

“Mhlekazi Cyril Ramaphosa, announce the election date now so that we can plan your democratic removal effectively and immediately,” said Malema on Tuesday.

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