Terror on our doorstep, as Mozambique insurgency brews

An insurgency crisis is brewing right on South Africa’s doorstep and it is time neighbours and global superpowers stepped in, according to experts.

The home of what is set to become one of the world’s biggest natural gas reserve, Cabo Delgado, in northern Mozambique, was home to a somewhat mysterious group of insurgents which have to date killed at least 600 people.

While the Mozambican military appeared to have contained the spread of the violence, experts have predicted the group could move to other regions. Increased activity by the group near exploration projects in the region prompted military action by Mozambican and reportedly, Russian, forces, although Russia has denied it sent troops to the region last year.

According to Mozambican journalist and activist, Boaventura Mojane, what began as a small revolt by the youth of rural Cabo Delgado in Mozambique has now snowballed into a rapidly growing insurgency, which the local armed forces were at pains to contain.

“Nobody knows the contingent of the insurgent group. The military keeps catching some of them but it seems that the numbers keep increasing so there is a suspicion that they have a very large social base or at least a recruiting base either locally in Mozambique or in neighbouring areas like south of Tanzania, but nobody will tell you exactly the extent to which those groups can continue mobilising a contingent and bringing in more people,” said Mojane.

Most of the insurgents were based in certain parts of Cabo Delgado, a mineral rich province set to become a major natural gas hub. According to Mojane, the insurgents were concentrated in areas rich in minerals such as ruby, graphite, and natural gas.

Historian Dr Liazzat Bonate said the events unfolding over the last three years in the rural, mineral rich region of northern Mozambique began with civil unrest over the imprisonment of youths who revolted when gas and mineral exploration activities began encroaching on local villages, and communities complained. There was also an element of religious conflict at the time.

“As far as I know it started with attacks in prisons around October 2017,” said Bonate.“I think those were the youths who had some conflict with the other Islamists and had been taken to prison, so some of them went to attack those prisons and releases some of those prisoners. At that point it was not a real insurgency, but I am guessing the situation in that area was not very calm in general because the population had a lot of grievances then and the youth that were captured in those prison, some were tortured and killed and I think that must have driven them to violence.”

Both Bonate and Liesel Louw-Vaudran, researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), stressed that there were no definite links to organised international terror groups such as Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State. While this has been inferred in social media posts attributed to the Mozambique insurgents, it was not a simple tale of radicalised youths joining ISIS.

“Hundreds of innocent people in villages have been killed in the most gruesome manner in these attacks, which indicated right from the start, the kind of terrorist activities which were at play,” said Louw-Vaudran.“… We have seen some claims by ISIS taking responsibility for some of these but we have to be very careful about putting those labels on these terror groups. We call them insurgents because they are definitely local people. Some of them may have come from across the border in Southern Tanzania and other neighboring countries, but we call it an insurgency because for now it’s not like we have not been able to make those links.”

(FILES) In this file photo taken on June 13, 2018 A Mozambican Army soldier brings down a structure torched by attackers to be rebuilt as shelter for people fleeing the recent attacks, in Naunde, northern Mozambique. Picture: Joaquim Nhamirre / AFP

It was important to note, Bonate added, that this crisis arose from civil unrest which, over time, morphed into full on insurgency.

“Until May 2018, they just invaded villages, stealing food and having small skirmishes. But from May onward that is when they started decapitating and other things,” said Bonate.

It was only last year when videos emerged on social media with people believed to be the Mozambican group pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS).

“But of course this kind of thing is ephemeral. It is difficult to say who is who and it is not like it is the whole population or all the insurgents. It is probably those who have been hardened and we have seen those elements from the beginning. It also seems they have been somehow linked to ADF in the Congo and all those things are coming through those ISIS websites so it is all just speculation. I don’t think there is any clear evidence of people belonging to those terror groups.”

Last week, International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor expressed concern over the growing crisis in Mozambique.

Louw-Vauldran said things had come to a stage where the situation should be escalated to the African Union Peace and Security Council to avoid further loss of lives and possible jeopardy to gas exploration which could bring wealth to Mozambique.

Death toll on the rise:
According to the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), it was believed around 350 terror attacks by insurgents in Mozambique have been reported since around October 2017.

The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed they were responsible for 23 of those attacks, although experts have shied away from simply blaming it on Islamic extremism, adding local politics in the area, poverty and civilian dissent against government are important factors to consider.

No official number for the size of groups has been reported although it was believed there were at least 500 militants in this group.

The violence was believed to have stemmed from a local jihadist group referred to as Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jammah (ASWJ). Experts say while initial clashes between Mozambique authorities and the group were largely in the realm of protest action and civil unrest, things soon took the shape of terrorism.

At least 600 people have died in the violence, most of them civilians.

The insurgency has affected more than 150 000 people, many of whom have been displaced and forced to move, according to the Cabo Delgado provincial government.

The attacks have destroyed 76 schools, affecting 16 760 pupils and 285 teachers, who have since been relocated. Fourteen thousand impoverished farmers have been forced to flee their homes, along with 1 981 fishermen.

External forces at work?
With around 150 trillion cubic feet of gas already discovered in Mozambique, the country was on track to join Russia, Australia, Qatar and the USA as among those with the largest liquid natural gas (LNG) reserves on the planet. Current and pending projects were valued at $54 billion (about R804 billion).

The Mozambican government has earmarked the northern province of Cabo Delgado for massive infrastructure development to build a “Gas City” in anticipation of the mega exploration projects in the pipeline and under way in the area.

But insurgency in the rural province has kept the country’s military busy containing the violence which often encroaches on areas where gas installations and other mineral exploration sites were situated.

Clashes between the insurgent group, believed to be linked to Islamist extremist groups in October 2019, led to the death of at least 20 Mozambican soldiers and, though the Russian government denies occupancy in the country, it’s been reported that five of the 200 Russian mercenaries said to be deployed in the province were killed in the confrontation.

According to local publication, Carta de Mozambique, members of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military contractor, were sent to the country to assist government in fighting the insurgent group.

Political analyst Andre Duvenhage predicts an intense global scramble for a piece of the pie in the projected boom in shale gas exploration in Mozambique, led by the American, Russian and European oil giants.

Government expected a total investment of over $50 billion, with a total production of LNG of over 30 million tons a year. Projects underway included a LNG project by Italian energy giant ENI in Area Four of the Rovuma Basin, while American ExxonMobil was heading an onshore LNG project.

Professor Liazzat Bonate, said the reported presence of Russian mercenaries indicated the start of geopolitical power games, although it would be small compared to other mineral rich regions in Africa. She said this increasing presence of international superpowers in the province was also a source of dissent among communities, a contributing factor to the violent insurgency.

“There were a lot of grievances about the land and the appropriation of land without compensation. There was also the perception among these youths that government officials were corrupt and benefiting from the gas industry at the beginning.

“There was also some conflict between different Islamic groups and the ruling party, Frelimo, but government’s reaction was very violent which I think was a mistake because that is what I think turned it into this huge problem and people really just organising into insurgency. ‘

Simnikiweh@citizen.co.za+