ZAR Forex Report – The December Effect, how will the ZAR end 2016
Locally we will be interested in our Inflation figures coming out later this morning – this could cause volatility if the figure is drastically off initial predictions.
The Rand had an interesting time against major currencies on the whole last week.
On Wednesday morning ZAR was at USD/ZAR 13.66, EUR/ZAR 14.66 and GBP/ZAR 17.30’s – the consensus was that the Rand had actually outperformed.
On Thursday morning the ZAR seemed to be marching on with the main ZAR currency pairs opening at USD/ZAR 13.47, EUR/ZAR 14.53 and GBP/ZAR 17.06.
On Friday morning we saw ZAR finally bounce and open at USD/ZAR 13.70, GBP/ZAR 17.21.
This was due mainly to the ECB extending its bond buying programme and all eyes on the local Current Account data later in the day.
Monday morning did not get off to the best start in the world with the ZAR on the back foot again.
USD/ZAR opened at 13.80, EUR/ZAR at 14.55 and GBP/ZAR at 17.40 –
The larger Current Account Deficit for SA was negative, oil also played a hand in this with more countries linking with OPEC in cutting oil production.
The markets have had another punt at the fact that Trump will be a positive to stimulus and therefore seeing the USD do rather well.
This week has seen some significant volatility in the markets and in particular the ZAR.
Today sees all eyes turning to the USA. We think it is a certainty (90%) that the FED will raise interest rates later today but most of this would have already been factored in.
The real interest will be to see if there are any hints made by the FED as to what their projections will be for next year….. Will they look to hike 2 or 3 times in 2017? Any indications that the US will aim to propel rates higher in 2017 will benefit the US Dollar and could weigh on commodities and the SA Rand.
Locally we will be interested in our Inflation figures coming out later this morning – this could cause volatility if the figure is drastically off initial predictions. Could there be scope for SARB to cut rates next year? We can only hold thumbs!
Tomorrow we keep an eye on South Africa’s PPI figures, Euro Manufacturing PMI, Bank of England Bank Rate and US Jobs data and Manufacturing PMI.
Friday is Reconciliation day in SA with Eurozone CPI stats also out.
Have a great week.
ZAR FOREX RATES
USDZAR = 13.6078
GBPZAR = 17.2388
EURZAR = 14.4638
AUDZAR = 10.2049
NZDZAR = 9.81415
CADZAR = 10.3724
CHFZAR 13.4499
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