Top July hopefuls retain merit ratings after weekend fireworks

With a month to go, the scenario for South Africa’s biggest horse race is starting to fall into place. Or is it?

For one thing, we finally have a firm favourite anchoring prospects for the Hollywodbets Durban July, with See It Again living up to expectations and assuredly winning last Saturday’s Daily News 2000 at Greyville. He was immediately cut from a 6-1 weak favourite to a much more confident 33-10.

Also, importantly, his merit rating of 124 was not tampered with by the handicappers, who declared him the best line horse in the Daily News and weighted to win.

Interestingly, Daily News runner-up Dave The King was also deemed to be a line horse and ran to his 122 MR, which remains unchanged. Mike de Kock’s progressive colt has seen his July odds drop from 20-1 to 14-1 – which still looks a bit of a bargain, given his feisty effort.

Anfields Rocket

Indeed, the handicappers were patting themselves on the back after this race. They said Without Question’s “20 pound adjustment for running third in the Grade 1 Cape Derby was fully justified” by his third on Saturday. Justin Snaith’s gelding was bumped up one point to 120 – but was one of the few July candidates to remain steady in the betting, at 8-1 and now joint second favourite with Rascallion.

The number crunchers were also happy with their work on the Sean Tarry-trained filly Rain In Holland, impressive winner of the Woolavington 2000 at the same meeting. She ran to her 120 MR and stays there ahead for the July.

Applying a further clarifying squeegee to the July window was the race’s second declaration stage this week, when 12 horses were withdrawn, bringing the original 60 entries down to 37.

Among prominent names lost were Anfields Rocket, a well-regarded youngster who ran a shocker in the Daily News; Hoedspruit, a tough galloper with the capacity to pop up in a big race, and One Way Traffic, who disappointed when fancied in Saturday’s Lonsdale Stirrup Cup.

As the old timers say about scratchings: “Less to worry about.”

So, things look more settled July-wise? Maybe.

Candice Bass-Robinson horses

A newsletter from the estimable Turf Talk bowled us a bouncer by casually mentioning that trainer Candice Bass-Robinson had “not totally dismissed the idea of supplementing” her superstar Charles Dickens into the July.

The three-year-old’s 132 MR would see him carrying 59kg in the big race – and would upset calculations of all other connections – not to mention the bookies.

Turf Talk also penned teasing speculation about Ricky Maingard-trained Al Muthana (MR 133) also being supplemented into the July.

Neither Charles Dickens nor Al Muthana were in among the original July entries, with their trainers feeling they didn’t stay the Greyville 2200m.

The primary target of both the country’s highest rated horses has been the 1600m Gold Challenge, a weight-for-age Grade 1 at Greyville on 10 June.

Often seen as the final piece in the July jigsaw puzzle, the Gold Challenge this year could instead break up a painstakingly built picture – if those top horses reveal an iota of stamina potential and their owners have an attack of FOMO. The final supplementary deadline is 13 June, three days after the Gold Challenge.

BETTING

33-10 See It Again
8-1 Rascallion, Without Question
10-1 Safe Passage, Pacaya
12-1 Cousin Casey
14-1 Dave The King, Pomp And Power, Rain In Holland, Rockpool
20-1 Puerto Manzano, Billy Bowlegs
22-1 Son Of Raj
25-1 Do It Again, Silver Darling, Aragosta
30-1 Zapatillas, Winchester Mansion
33-1 and upwards the others