Rating the Boks’ chances against Japan
Looking at the odds, Boks supporters could be lulled into a sense of safety - but the chance of disruption remains ever present.
Duane Vermeulen’s jacket during a send off at OR Tambo International Airport in Kempton Park, 30 August 2019 ahead of the Springboks heading to Japan for the Rugby World Cup. Picture: Neil McCartney
Expect normal service, but the chance of disruption remains ever present. That, in a nutshell, is the picture that has emerged of the Springboks’ odds of reaching the semifinals of this year’s Rugby World Cup.
Indeed, even before national coach Rassie Erasmus yesterday announced his match squad to face the surprisingly formidable Japan in Tokyo on Sunday, SportingBet SA installed South Africa as 3/25 favourites to win by 15 points or more.
And adding to a sense of parochial national pride, 5/1 odds on the Brave Blossoms to continue with their campaign of upsets suggests local bookmakers don’t hold much hope of that happening.
World Sports Betting (5/1) and SunBet (23/5) offer similar odds of Japan walking away with a win, even if the offers of 1/6 and 1/7 respectively on a Springbok victory suggest an ever so slightly more competitive contest.
Even fickle overseas operators have taken notice of Japan’s remarkable run, with bet365, SkyBet, BetFair, SportPesa and Ladbrokes all offering odds in the 4.5/1 to 6/1 range.
That’s in stark contrast to some of the remarkable odds the host nation has defied in the past few weeks.
They were mere 9/1 outsiders to beat Ireland in a critical pool game – the Irish were punted as overwhelming 1/12 favourites – and last weekend sent another shock wave by beating incredible 50/1 odds of finishing unbeaten in Pool A.
It’s little wonder the Springboks’ words in the media this week unmistakably smacked of cautious optimism.
“Japan are a well-coached team and have deservedly climbed to seventh in the world rankings,” said Erasmus, perhaps toeing a fine line between knowing a squad of the calibre he’s chosen should be beating Japan, and disrespecting his opponents.
“It’ll be a good challenge but we’re definitely up for it.”
What is undeniable is that Japan’s improvement and increased standing has been dramatic. After all, 2015’s “Miracle of Brighton” – in which they beat the Boks 34-32 – was achieved against 80/1 odds. That makes 5/1 seem a rubbish bet. The Springboks were 1/500 favourites in that match!
It all adds to the intrigue of Sunday’s showdown, where Bok skipper Siya Kolisi and his lieutenants are expected to be confronted by a vociferous home crowd.
But they can take heart a decent SA crowd will turn up too. Technology company Travelport recently noted a 234% increase in South Africans travelling to Japan year-on-year for the duration of the tournament. That should mean at least about 4,000 SA supporters will be at Tokyo Stadium.
Yet, as we’re all very aware, games aren’t won in the stands.
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