King Pelles rules over the Gold Cup market

For decades the Gold Cup at Greyville was famous for its longshot winners. But in recent years the formbook has proven to be a more reliable guide for punters.

When declarations for South Africa’s premier marathon horse race were announced this week, bookmakers quickly pegged obvious favourite King Pelles at a prohibitive R1.65 for the Win (and R0.31 the Place!). That would have been unheard of in the days when the punters’ game was finding the traditional end-of-season “roughie”.

Racing being the funny old game it is, though, there’ll still be a search for value among the 13 runners before the start at the 3200m pole at Greyville on Sunday 27 July.

Holding Thumbs is well regarded by his trainer Glen Kotzen and has been developing into a decent stayer, so his R4.55 looks fair value – until one scrutinises his most recent run, in the Gold Vase on July day, when he was made to look pedestrian by King Pelles.

Madison Valley ran a commendable fifth in the July and leading jockey Gavin Lerena was encouraged enough by what he felt that day to stick with the four-year-old. That makes his R6.25 Win worth considering.

Shoot The Rapids, a close runner-up in this race last year, has all the stamina needed to outlast his rivals, but hasn’t been in the best of form recently.

It might pay to keep a close eye on the Gold Cup betting market over the next week, especially for moves for runners with no proven record the marathon trip. What happens on the gallops seldom stays on the gallops.

Gold Cup betting:

King Pelles – R1.65
Holding Thumbs – R4.55
Madison Valley – R6.25
Future Swing – R8.33
Navajo Nation – R10.00
Shoot The Rapids – R12.50
Nebraas – R12.50
Bournemouth – R14.30
Cape Eagle – R16.67
Blackberry Malt – R16.67
Field Marshall – R33.33
Taxhaven – R40.00
Positive Attitude – R75.00