The risk will require broader affordability measures, including device financing and trade‑in programmes.
Smartphones. Picture: iStock
The era of ultra‑cheap smartphones may be ending.
More than 230 million annual shipments of sub‑$200 (R3 200) devices are forecast to vanish by 2030, threatening affordability for millions of consumers in lower‑income markets, according to Counterpoint Research.
Smartphones, once considered luxury items, have become central to empowering citizens.
Yet with flagship devices often priced beyond many people’s reach, calls for affordable alternatives have grown louder.
Communications and Digital Technologies Minister Solly Malatsi has emphasised the need to accelerate access to affordable smart devices, aligning with broader efforts to expand connectivity across South Africa.
Smartphone shipment
However, the Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Price Band tracker projects that global shipments of entry‑tier devices will decline by about 40% between 2025 and 2030, even as the overall market recovers to near‑2025 volumes.
Analysts say the contraction reflects the structural shock of the 2026-27 downturn, when rising memory and chipset costs, tougher minimum specifications, and reduced OEM willingness to support low‑margin segments sharply cut availability.
Warning
Principal analyst Yang Wang warned that the recovery will not restore the entry tier.
“The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing. The opportunity now shifts toward better‑specced mainstream devices and premium products, although higher tiers cannot absorb all the lost volume.”
The report cautions that affordability pressures could extend replacement cycles, boost demand for used and refurbished devices, and slow mobile internet adoption in lower‑income regions.
Global shipments
By 2030, global shipments are expected to reach 1.2 billion units, only slightly below 2025 levels.
But sub‑$200 shipments will remain structurally smaller, while devices priced above $200 grow by 26%. Premium smartphones are forecast to expand at a 7% CAGR, driving revenue growth through foldables, advanced imaging, and on‑device AI.
Grant Prince, head of impact investing at Counterpoint, highlighted the wider risk.
“The missing middle is not simply a capital gap. It is a bankability gap. The loss of affordable new smartphones could make it harder for first‑time users in lower‑income markets to come online.”
Addressing risk
Counterpoint says addressing this risk will require broader affordability measures, including device financing, trade-in programmes, subsidies, tax reform, and circular-device initiatives.
