Mozambique on the brink of civil war yet again

NELSPRUIT – Mozambique could be on the brink of another civil war. On Monday, the Mozambican army staged an attack on the rebel group, Renamo, and took over its military base near the Gorongosa Mountains in central Mozambique. In response to this attack, Renamo attacked a police station in Maringue, about 1 000 km from Maputo. The attack lasted for nearly an hour.

Renamo, which is also the main opposition party, accused the Mozambican government of trying to kill the group’s president, Mr Afonso Dhlakama. The group then annulled the peace accord which was signed in 1992 and ended the country’s 16-year-long civil war.

It ended in 1992 against communist-backed Frelimo, after Renamo lost its Cold War backers Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa. About one million Mozambicans lost their lives in this conflict.

Renamo spokesman Mr Fernando Mazanga said in a press release, “The Frelimo government used troops and heavy artillery to attack the residence of the Renamo president, Afonso Dhlakama, to kill him in cold blood.

“This irresponsible attitude of the commander in chief of the country's security forces (president Armando Guebuza) signals the end of the Rome Peace Accord,” Mazanga added.

Monday’s attack had no casualties, with Renamo saying their leader had escaped unhurt, though it did not release any details about his whereabouts. However, other reports suggested that 36 lives had been lost in the battles.

Tension between the Mozambique Liberation Front, also known as Fremlio, and Renamo has been escalating since last year.

The rippling effect of these incidents has not been really addressed locally. The Department of International Relations and Cooperation spokesman Clayton Monyela said on Thursday, that South Africa had called for calm in Mozambique. He said it had called for all parties to engage in dialogue to resolve their differences.

Lowvelder asked him if he knew whether in this specific instance, it was safe for South Africans to go to Mozambique at present. Monyela responded by saying “How must I know that, we don't deal with tourists.”

With the festive season only six weeks away, numerous tourists are gearing themselves up for their annual holiday in Mozambique. According to police Col Mike Mhlanga, stationed at the Lebombo border, and the information provided to them by the Department of Home Affairs, the number of South Africans who went through the border to Mozambique in December 2011, was 438 220 and it excluded those flying in or entering at other border posts.

A senior analyst of Africa Global Risk Analysis, Mr Markus Weimer, said the security situation in Mozambique remained dynamic in the wake of the government assault on Renamo headquarter. He said Renamo guerrilla-style attacks were likely but would probably target government security services.

“Nevertheless opportunistic attacks or acts of sabotage against transport infrastructure and road users cannot be ruled out, especially in central Sofala province. The situation is likely to stabilise before the holiday period in December, but developments should be closely monitored. Crime continues to be a threat and incidents typically spike during this time.”

Lowvelder spoke to defence analyst Mr Helmoed Heitman about the situation across the border. He said that, in his opinion, the chances of a war depended solely on how the government reacted to Renamo.

“If the government now tries to establish peace talks or negotiations with Renamo, it could avoid another civil war.”

He said the biggest challenge Renamo faced was finance. Yet Heitman pointed out that last month off-shore gas resources were discovered off the Mozambican coastline.

“This could lead to Renamo getting financial backing from a number of areas such as other interested countries in negotiating contracts on resources after it was placed in a position of power.”

He added that illegal activities also contributed financially towards the funding of many rebel groups. “Mozambique is plagued by illegal activities including rhino poaching, as well as drug and human trafficking.”

Heitman said their borders were not guarded and the government had not upgraded the arms and weapons to safeguard itself from attack. An eyewitness from Mozambique also clarified this by telling Lowvelder that the governments military vehicles had looked as if they were still from the '70s.

“This leads it to be very open to arms easily smuggled into the country to a rebel group as not even the coastline is guarded. You could easily land tanks on the coast without being noticed.

“It is not uncommon for rebel parties to have agreements with illegal traders, for example Al Shabaab has a deal with Somalian pirates for sharing profits.”