Severe Tropical Storm Freddy: Good news for SA

For the past two days, Freddy has moved briskly westward, across the southern part of the Mozambique Channel, towards the country’s coastline.

As expected, it has steadily intensified throughout this period, drawing energy from the very warm ocean surface. This is according to the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS) most recent update on Freddy, on Friday February 24.

At the time of writing, it said, this system will imminently be making landfall on the Mozambican coast between the towns of Vilankulos and Maxixe.

Sustained winds in association with the vortex, or “eye” of the system are of the order of 89 to 118 km/h. This means there is a high likelihood of wind damage to the built environment along the coast and adjacent interior as Freddy makes landfall.

Moreover, there is a high risk of windblown debris, such as corrugated iron sheeting, causing serious injury to humans and livestock.

Despite Freddy arriving on the coast as a severe tropical storm, this system is widely expected to begin weakening and decaying overland during the weekend as it begins to dominate the atmospheric circulation of southern Mozambique, just eastwards of the Lowveld region of South Africa.

Residents of southern Mozambique are urged to be acutely aware that a spell of torrential tropical rainfall and sustained windiness is likely to affect a significant part of the region during the latter half of Friday, and extend throughout the coming weekend.

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Moreover, major rivers in southern Mozambique will soon be in flood, further exacerbating the situation. The SAWS recommended communities living along the banks of these regions to evacuate to higher ground at an early stage.

Given the proximity of the overland remnants of Freddy this weekend, the rainfall prospects for South Africa look a bit different.

The good news for SA is that the current consensus of a range of numeric weather prediction models is that Freddy will have very localised and limited impact on the country in the days ahead.

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The only province where there is a significant risk of direct impact in terms of heavy rain, flooding and/or wind damage is for the very eastern districts of Limpopo, in particular, Vhembe as well as Mopani.

These districts, including the northern half of the Kruger National Park, will be on the edge or periphery of the heavy rain area alluded to in the previous paragraph (refer to the predicted rainfall map).

Consequently, the SAWS is issuing a Level 5 Orange warning, in terms of its Impact-Based Warnings system for the easternmost sections of Vhembe and Mopani.

This level of warning is associated with a moderate likelihood of significant impacts. Adjacent to the Orange Level 5 warning area, the remainder of the Lowveld regions of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, as well as the escarpment region of Limpopo are included in a Level 2 Yellow warning for heavy rain and/or localised flooding.

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“The high levels of uncertainty surrounding the movement and intensity of such tropical systems, especially when they move overland, remain a challenge for forecasters worldwide. Hence the public can rest assured that the SAWS, in consultation with national and provincial disaster management structures, will continue to closely monitor developments on a 24/7 basis and will issue regular updates in this regard, across a variety of media and social media platforms,” said the weather service.

The public is urged and encouraged to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio. Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SA Weather Service Twitter account, @SAWeatherServic.