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Expert clarifies weather apps’ heavy rainfall outlook for Mpumalanga in mid-January

Various weather predictions are raising concerns about extremely wet conditions and possible flooding in the days ahead.

January 6, 2026
Content supplied 2 minutes read
Various weather model apps are raising concerns of extreme wet conditions Swaicsa shed some more light on this predictions and gave some more clarification.
Photo for illustration only: Stefan de Villiers

Social media and WhatsApp groups are buzzing with news of heavy rainfall predicted in the coming days.

The Severe Weather and Information Centre (SWAICSA) explained that long-range rainfall predictions on various weather apps and websites show very high totals over north-eastern South Africa, particularly eastern Limpopo and Mpumalanga, from around January 10 to 15. Some maps show totals of 200 mm or more, which understandably raises concern given the high rainfall already received this season.

Angelo Ricardo Hoorn, a SWAICSA administrator, clarified: “The information currently being shared on apps is long-range model guidance, not a confirmed weather forecast. Rainfall totals shown 7 to 10 days ahead are low confidence and can change significantly from one model run to the next.”

He explained that many weather apps display raw output from a single model, without human interpretation.

“When tropical moisture or a weak low-pressure signal appears, these models can greatly exaggerate rainfall totals, especially over the Lowveld.”

Hoorn emphasised that this does not mean flooding is expected: “While parts of north-eastern SA have already received substantial seasonal rainfall and catchments are more sensitive, there is currently no confirmed flood warning or high-impact rainfall forecast in place for next week.”

“The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will issue formal media statements and warnings once confidence increases and a real risk of flooding or significant impacts becomes likely,” he added.

ALSO READ: KaNyamazane bridge on Dr Enos Mabuza Drive collapses amid heavy rains

“That is the correct and responsible process. SWAICSA is actively monitoring multiple weather models, satellite and moisture trends, and short-range rainfall guidance.”

@lowvelder

The aftermath of a heavy storm on a Brondal farm near Mbombela on Saturday, December 27. > Video: Supplied/Cindy Cutting #heavystorm #stormy #weather #mbombela #mpumalangatiktoker

♬ original sound – Lowveld Media

According to Hoorn, if a credible flood risk develops, it will be communicated clearly and early through official SAWS channels and supported by SWAICSA updates.

ALSO READ: New Year’s floods claim three lives in Mpumalanga; one person still missing

“Some posts related to these long-range rainfall predictions have been declined by moderation,” he said.

“This decision was taken deliberately to prevent unnecessary fear, confusion, or conflict within the group, based on low-confidence information. This does not mean concerns are being ignored – it simply reflects SWAICSA’s commitment to sharing verified and responsible weather information.”

@lowvelder

A heavy storm is currently welcoming Mbombela into the new year as SAWS predicted with hail lashing down in parts of the city. > Video: Bertus De Bruyn. #mbombelatiktok #heavyrain #storm

♬ original sound – Lowveld Media

SWAICSA asks the public and members of their Facebook group not to treat long-range accumulation maps as flood forecasts, and to avoid spreading unverified app graphics, as this can cause unnecessary panic.

Visit the SWAICSA Facebook page at www.facebook.com/SwaicsaPage

At Caxton, we employ humans to generate daily fresh news, not AI intervention. Happy reading!
January 6, 2026
Content supplied 2 minutes read

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