Rain might bring about floods in Mbombela and other parts of the Lowveld

The development of a cut-off low pressure system over the interior of South Africa might be the cause of widespread showers and flooding reaching some parts of the country, including the Lowveld, this week.

Cut-off low systems are the result of the air flow in the atmosphere being disturbed and are characterised by the instability in the atmosphere. Due to utterly cold temperatures, the upwards movement of air is promoted, which in turn increases the chances of rain as well as thunderstorms, and the risk of potential flooding.

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According to a Facebook post by Storm Report SA, a South African weather company, the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ weather model suggests up to 100mm rain perception for Mbombela and surrounding areas this week. Storm Report SA says the weather model sometimes underestimates the total, thus 100mm of rain can be exceeded in places.

A media release, published by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) on February 6, indicated that rainfall across the country will start up on Wednesday, February 8, however, the Lowveld can expect persistent rainfall from Friday, February 10.

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Kevin Rae, a chief forecaster, and part of disaster risk reduction of the SAWS, said Lowvelders could expect a succession of a few days of cloudy, warm and humid weather, with a high chance of showers and thundershowers at any time of the day or night. “There could be sudden, heavy downpours from time to time, as well as a risk of localised flooding, once the ground becomes saturated from rainfall,” Rae said.

“Initially rainfall will be absorbed into the ground, provided the ground is relatively dry. However, following a day or two of rain, the ground will ultimately become saturated and any further rain will begin to flow overland and excess water will begin entering streams and rivers.”

Following the continuous rainfall the Lowveld experienced throughout the past week, the ground is already soaked with water and left dams and rivers to overflowing levels, increasing the flood risk in the area.

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Storm Report SA advised residents to stay indoors and off the roads, avoid crossing rivers and swollen streams where water is above your ankles. “Never drive on a road covered by water. You do not know how deep it is or if the road has been washed away. If the vehicle stalls, leave it immediately and seek higher ground. Be especially cautious at night when it’s harder to recognise flood dangers,” the weather company said.

Both the SAWS and Storm Report SA encourage the public to listen to weather forecasts on radio or television.