ANC will ultimately suffer in Cyril-Ace spat, say experts

Political experts believe a court victory for suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule would embolden him to fight the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it is the ANC that will suffer should they go all out against each other.

Political analyst Professor Lesiba Teffo said if Magashule won in court, he would challenge for power as he would feel vindicated.

Another political scientist, Professor Barry Hanyane, was of the view that Magashule’s victory in court, if it happened, would further heighten the perceptions that there were two centres of power in the ANC since Nasrec.

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According to Teffo, the tension between the two leaders continued since the Nasrec conference but they had to find a way to cooperate as they were elected as equals, with none of them with power to suspend another.

“We cannot pretend that things were normal. Ace Magashule was not a preferred candidate for the position of secretary-general but will be rendered untouchable if he wins his challenge,” Teffo said.

Teffo said it was neither for Ramaphosa nor Magashule to choose whether to work together.

“They must be civil with each other, otherwise if they go all out against each other, the ANC will lose,” Teffo said.

This sentiment was echoed by Hanyane from the North-West University. He believed if Magashule won, he would gain more strength to challenge Ramaphosa.

“He would probably see himself as in a better position to be the next face of the party’s leadership.

“Whether that leadership carried with it the faction of radical economic transformation (RET) on the other side, or not, is something that is debatable. But, obviously, one can predict he will be sympathetic to the RET cause,” Hanyane said.

The expert said, however, he was sceptical that Magashule would win in court, both from a legal and political perspectives. Rather, he said the judgment was likely to take the power back to Luthuli House.

Should this be the case, argued Hanyane, the Magashule RET camp was likely to lose and his political career and progress within the party may suffer a huge setback.

Magashule was the only high-profile ANC leader to have publicly opposed the step-aside decision, to the extent of challenging it in court.

If he won, it would set a precedent that would be exploited by all party members who had been punching loopholes in the ANC disciplinary processes. Magashule’s defiance contradicted the attitudes of fellow ANC members, who preferred to take the initiative to voluntarily stepped aside.

Those included ANC KwaZulu-Natal deputy chair Mike Mabuyakhulu, presidential aide Khusela Diko and several members based in the provinces.

Former Gauteng health MEC Dr Bandile Masuku initially volunteer to step aside but was then fired from his job by premier David Makhura.

Magashule’s faction bedfellows like ANC MP Bongani Bongo, former eThekwini mayor and ANC regional chair Zandile Gumede and Limpopo ANC provincial treasurer Danny Msiza were subtle about their defiance.