Minister’s coup claim raises more questions than answers

There are many questions which can be asked about the claims this week by Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni – who is also responsible for State Security – that state security agencies had identified “a potential risk of a coup d’état and put measures in place to prevent it”.

Naturally, as she did previously on questions about her foreign travel expenditure, Ntshavheni can argue that she cannot release details of the alleged plotting for “national security” reasons.

That is quite convenient, given that the only piece of news recently which is potentially disruptive to the security of the state is the theatrical press conference given by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, who accused police management and other law enforcement agencies of corruption, as well as pointing at politicians.

It was theatrical because it looked similar to many of those we have seen by African military strongmen announcing the ouster of a civilian government.

So, was the coup claim intended to imply that the country was under threat by the likes of Mkhwanazi – or was it intended to divert some of the attention away from his claims?

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Experts we spoke to agreed that the likelihood of a military coup is not high – mainly because there is still some discipline in the SA National Defence Force.

However, they all agreed that civil unrest, possibly even rising to the level of an insurrection, as happened in the pro-Jacob Zuma protests which rocked the country in 2021, is a far more worrying scenario.

South Africa is sitting on a social time bomb, which has been armed by increasing anger about poverty, inequality and joblessness, as well as the lack of service delivery and the increasingly apparent involvement of politicians and civil servants in rampant corruption.

That’s the threat the minister should be addressing.