Will the EFF lose its juju?

Julius Malema is not just the leader of the EFF, he is its heartbeat, its voice and its defining image.

When South Africans picture the EFF, they see Malema first: the red beret, the fiery rhetoric, the fearless defiance.

The party’s identity has been built around his persona more than its structures or policies.

That is why the prospect of Malema facing jail raises a profound question: can the EFF exist without the man who created it, or will it collapse once its commander-in-chief is silenced?

The East London Magistrate’s Court convicted Malema in October last year on charges related to the discharge of a firearm at the EFF’s fifth-anniversary rally in 2018 in Mdantsane.

His pre-sentencing proceedings were postponed on Friday last week, with the final heads of argument expected to be heard on 15 April.

The EFF’s strength has always been rooted in young, unemployed and frustrated South Africans, many from townships and campuses where radical politics feel like the only language the state understands.

For these voters, the EFF is less a political party than a protest movement in red berets.

The big unknown is whether that base is loyal to the cause, or simply loyal to Malema.

If it is the latter, the EFF could struggle to retain momentum without its leader shouting from rallies and in parliament.

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The EFF was never just a political party – it was a Malema project. His anger, humour, insults and fearlessness grabbed attention.

He fills stadiums, drives media headlines and pushes opponents into corners. If he disappears from the stage, even for a year, the party would be shaken.

Many supporters did not join because of the red beret: they joined because of the man wearing it.

South African politics has seen strange things before. Sometimes, jail time turns a politician into a martyr.

Former president Jacob Zuma used his legal troubles to fire up supporters and blame the system. Nelson Mandela became an international icon behind bars.

Malema could try to turn a sentence into a political advantage. He is skilled at painting the establishment as corrupt, or racist, and positioning himself as the victim.

But it is risky. Sympathy can fade quickly and voters can move on faster than politicians expect.

Malema may attempt Zuma’s Stalingrad strategy, delaying the court process for as long as possible using appeals, legal arguments and technical objections.

It worked for Zuma for years. But the political environment is different now.

The courts are firmer and many South Africans are tired of watching politicians use the legal system as a battlefield.

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Malema does have legal options, but none guarantee freedom. Yet, the bigger concern is the EFF succession.

The likes of Floyd Shivambu, Mbuyiseni Ndlozi and Dali Mpofu have been sidelined or chased away by Malema, leaving no clear successor.

Without him, the EFF does not just lose a leader – it loses its identity. If Malema goes to jail, the party will need to grow up fast.

That means building strong structures, not just rallies. It means choosing a clear leader, not just loyal friends. And it means focusing on real policy, not only political stunts.

The EFF must learn to be a party, not just a movement behind a celebrity leader.

If Malema is jailed, the EFF will be forced to confront the question it has avoided for over a decade: what is the movement without Malema?

Survival will demand maturity – stronger structures, credible leadership and a shift from show to policy.

Jail will not automatically kill the EFF, but it will strip away the comfort of relying on one man’s charisma.

For a party that thrives on disruption, this may be its greatest test yet.

And to be honest, Malema does not deserve prison but a stern warning or a fine – for South Africa’s streets are filled with far worse criminals who remain untouched, while the justice system risks turning politics into spectacle.

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