While matric results hit a record high, analysts say the true pass rate shows most pupils never reach or succeed in Grade 12.
As South Africa celebrates the historic record matric pass rate, some experts and political leaders are questioning the quality of the country’s education system.
The Class of 2025 performed well and the National Senior Certificate (NSC) pass rate was 88%, the highest pass rate yet.
KwaZulu-Natal outperformed all the other provinces with a pass rate of 90.6%, while other provinces scored over 80%.
Matric results pass rate doesn’t reflect true pass rate
But experts say there is nothing to be celebrated as the pass rate does not reflect the true pass rate, which is 57.7%.
The “real pass rate” is calculated using the total number of pupils who began their schooling in Grade 1, not those who had made it to Grade 12 to sit the matric examinations.
Prof Kathija Yassim, head of the department of education leadership and management at the University of Johannesburg, said: “The concern raised by experts is valid and longstanding. While the official matric pass rate often appears encouraging, it does not tell the full story of system performance.
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“The cohort analysis – which tracks how many pupils who entered Grade 1 eventually complete and pass Grade 12 – reveals deeper structural challenges, including early dropout, repetition, socioeconomic pressures and uneven school quality.
“A cohort pass rate of approximately 57.7% reminds us that access alone is not enough; retention and meaningful progression remain critical weaknesses in the system.”
Yassim said the true measure of education system quality lies not only in the final matric outcomes, but in participation, persistence and success throughout the schooling pipeline.
True measure in participation and persistence
In particular, pupil performance and retention in gateway subjects such as mathematics and physical sciences are key indicators of system health, she said.
“These subjects strongly influence post-school pathways, especially into scarce skills and science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields. When large numbers of pupils exit the system before Grade 12, or avoid these subjects, it signals systemic inequities rather than individual failure.”
Yassim said the Grade 12 pass requirements in themselves were not the core problem and lowering or raising the pass mark alone would not fix foundational gaps that emerge much earlier in the system.
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“While standards must be protected, the more urgent issue is the uneven quality of teaching and learning, particularly in the early grades, and the lack of sustained academic support as learners progress,” she said.
“The 2025 matric results should therefore be read as both a moment of celebration for those who succeeded and a call to confront persistent inequalities that shape who gets to reach and succeed in matric in the first place.
“In short, the matric results are a necessary indicator, but not a sufficient one. A credible discussion about quality must focus on the full pupil journey, from Grade R through to post-school transition.”
Loopholes
Jonathan Jansen, former rector at the University of the Free State, criticised the education authorities and singled out some loopholes.
He took to X saying: “It reflects the results of about half the students who started in Grade 12. The pass requirement is still low; there is nothing to be proud of.
“Schools with lavish facilities and resources are supposed to do well, so temper the praise. Teachers work hard, students work hard, but the system fails them. Don’t blame the victim.
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“To change schools, change the foundations of learning because Grade 12 is too late. “There will always be talented individuals from poor schools who outsmart the system; good for them, they soothe our conscience. “But what about the majority?”
Action SA President Herman Mashaba also took to X to criticise the results.
“The 57.7% real matric pass rate masks a school system that is still failing too many pupils,” Mashaba said.
Some pupils fell by the wayside
Education expert Hendrick Makaneta said the unfortunate part was that not every pupil who entered Grade 1, 12 years ago, was able to write the matric exams.
“Some fell by the wayside and are unaccounted for,” said Makaneta.
“It is true that we are not doing well as a country when it comes to our performance in maths and science.
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“This has been evidenced by the trends and international mathematics and science studies, which have consistently shown that South Africa continues to be at the bottom of the list of countries in maths and science.”
Makaneta said it was encouraging that many of those who wrote, passed their exams. But he said government should walk the extra mile to address shortcomings in the system, especially the challenges faced in earlier grades.
There is no doubt that austerity measures have impacted the system negatively, said Makaneta.
Government should walk extra mile to address shortcomings
“It cannot be correct for the state to continuously produce graduates who are unemployable.
“The overall quality of education remains poor, given that our pupils leave the basic education system without the necessary skills to make a meaningful contribution in the mainstream economy.”
National Association of School Governing Bodies chair Matakanye Matakanye defended the education system and commended the pupils and the department.
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“We do not share the view of people who criticise the pass rate. We are 100% with the improvement.”
National Professional Teachers’ Organisation of South Africa executive director Basil Manuel conceded that the education system needs to be fixed.
Education system needs to be fixed
“At first, we must understand that you can never have 100% throughput from Grade 1 right through to Grade 12. That’s the first misunderstanding.
“From one year to the next, there will always be a little bit of a drop-off for a variety of reasons. We should have a far, far smaller dropout rate. The dropout rate doesn’t mean that these children have left school. Sometimes they failed and they’re in a lower grade.”
