‘Failed new dawn to blame’ for ANC’s drop in support – analyst

An analyst has blamed President Cyril Ramaphosa’s “new dawn” failure for the ANC’s drop in the 2019 elections.

Independent political analyst Zamikhaya Maseti said: “Ramaphosa is in serious trouble and has his back against the wall. His ‘new dawn’ project is already weakened by the below 60% outcome. What this means in reality is that he has not been able to arrest and repel the electoral downward swing that started for the ANC in 2009.

“The strategic and political opponents of the ‘new dawn’ will roast him alive and his project will soon be derailed. Ace [Magashule] will make sure that Ramaphosa is given one term. The balance of forces in the Nasrec Faustian Pact are changing.”

Maseti’s view came despite the ANC claiming top spot nationally, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

The growing Freedom Front Plus came in fifth, followed by the smaller African Christian Democratic Party.

There was no doubt that the ANC would win the 2019 poll, albeit with the reduced majority, which was predicted to fall below 60%.

ANC elections head Fikile Mbalula said 57% was a significant achievement for the ANC, because the party’s own polls showed it was going as low as 30%.

“That is why the opposition parties began to construct a narrative that they would form the future government. Now we have thrashed them,” Mbalula said.

Maseti had the opposite view.

“In short, the ANC has no reason to celebrate. The downward swing is accelerated,” he said.

He said Jacob Zuma brought the ANC electoral performance down from Thabo Mbeki’s 69.9% in 2004 to 62.1% in 2014, and now Ramaphosa went even further down to what Maseti predicted as “around 59%”.

Another analyst, Ralph Mathekga, said the drop was caused by the ANC’s own flaws.

“Its a question of disgruntlement by supporters, who are not voting for the party. It’s not the strength of the opposition, but simply that people don’t want to vote for the ANC,” Mathekga said.

The analyst lambasted the opposition parties for failing to grab the opportunity to capitalise on the ANC weaknesses.

“The fact that the ANC can still get 57% shows that our opposition in South Africa is very weak, period,” Mathekga said.

Yesterday’s early results indicated the DA was set to remain the official opposition but like the ANC, was likely to fall below its 2014 poll performance.

“The EFF helped the Freedom Front Plus to consolidate the white voters. It positioned itself as an opponent of the EFF policies, including the expropriation of land without compensation,” said Mathekga.

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