ANC in crisis: Zuma’s influence adds to party’s growing list of challenges

With President Cyril Ramaphosa likely to concede to glaring government failures when delivering the ANC January 8th Statement marking the party’s 112th anniversary on Saturday, political analysts yesterday said no strides have been made since the celebration a year ago.

In his address during the 111th ANC anniversary celebration in Mangaung last year, Ramaphosa said the party acknowledged:

• People were “increasingly losing hope of ever finding employment or setting up viable businesses – those trying to eke out a living in the informal sector are facing harassment and red tape”;
• The energy crisis undermined economic growth and investment prospects, with persistent load shedding destroying businesses, compromising the production of food and the provision of social services, such as water, sanitation, community safety, education and health;
• Increasing lawlessness, criminality and violence created a situation in which women and children lived in fear – “not only in the streets of their towns and villages but also in their homes”;
• Households were increasingly finding it difficult to meet their most basic needs due to the rising cost of living;
• More young people were finding themselves in desperate conditions – ending up resorting to alcohol and drug abuse; and
• Many municipalities failed to perform their basic functions, such as delivery of clean potable water, regular waste collection and road maintenance, leading to the rapid deterioration of the quality of life of residents.

Nothing has changed since last year’s speech

Political expert Daniel Silke said nothing has changed since last year’s speech, with the ANC more likely to find itself “in the same position as the old United Party – just fragmenting”.

“The January 8th Statement is really within the context of a fragmenting and failing ANC – a failing state, given the logistics crisis at Transnet and the Eskom power debacle – affecting the broader South Africa,” said Silke.

“The party is under severe pressure during an election campaign – the most uncertain yet in South Africa. Both South Africans and the investor sector are looking for signs that the ANC can manage what is going to be an extraordinarily difficult election campaign.

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“The ANC needs to set very clear parameters in terms of campaigning, policy and define what it stands for.”

ANC all over the place when it comes to policy

“The party is currently all over the place when it comes to policy – pushed and pulled from all sides.

“This is from business interests to the populist left – like the Economic Freedom Fighters and, now, the MK party. Unless it comes out with a clear policy directive, the ANC is going to find itself splitting between all these various factions.”

“At the moment, things are unclear, with everyone making noise and the ANC unable to rise above the noise. All this comes at a terrible time when the party is fragmenting.”

“Issues surrounding Jacob Zuma and the MK party have created further distrust within the ANC, which does not know how to handle the issue – let alone the erosion of its support base in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.”

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ANC ‘incapable of redemption’

Lukhona Mnguni, political analyst at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the ANC was “incapable of redemption and it was not surprising that corruption, mismanagement of the state and a sluggish economy are still with us”.

“It is because the ANC cannot be trusted to deliver or clamp down on tendencies crippling the state, if the latest alleged National Student Financial Aid Scheme scandal linking Minister Blade Nzimande is anything to go by.

“The ANC has perfected incompetence, instead of renewal, rebuilding or reconstruction of the state. Very little has been achieved since the 2023 January 8th Statement.”

“The 2023 celebrations in Mangaung were about marking the renewal process and taking the ANC forward – in building unity, which has not happened,” said Mnguni.

“The culture of corruption has filtered into the lower ranks – meaning the removal of names like Ace Magashule – has not necessarily removed the cancer.”

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