Take Covid-19 numbers with a pinch of salt, and prepare for third, fourth waves
A leading epidemiologist believes the official numbers don't tell the whole story, as can be seen in weekly excess deaths, and questions if government's vaccine rollout secrecy is evidence of a lack of proper planning.
(FILES) In this file photo taken on June 24, 2020, One of the first South African Oxford vaccine trialists looks on as a medical worker injects him with the clinical trial for a potential vaccine against the COVID-19 coronavirus at the Baragwanath hospital in Soweto, South Africa. (Photo by SIPHIWE SIBEKO / POOL / AFP)
Official figures indicating the decline in South Africa's Covid-19 infections should be taken with a pinch of salt, with experts warning that these numbers may not be fully reflective of the grim picture on the ground. According to co-chair of the Covid-19 Ministerial Advisory Committee, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, South Africa is approaching the end of its second Covid-19 wave and this is a very positive trend. Official figures show that there has been a consistent decline in the number of infections in the last two weeks, with Karim, an epidemiologist and infectious diseases specialist, saying SA seems to have…
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Official figures indicating the decline in South Africa’s Covid-19 infections should be taken with a pinch of salt, with experts warning that these numbers may not be fully reflective of the grim picture on the ground.
According to co-chair of the Covid-19 Ministerial Advisory Committee, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, South Africa is approaching the end of its second Covid-19 wave and this is a very positive trend. Official figures show that there has been a consistent decline in the number of infections in the last two weeks, with Karim, an epidemiologist and infectious diseases specialist, saying SA seems to have hit a peak in the second wave.
Excess deaths far exceed official numbers
But Stellenbosch University’s Dr Jo Barnes has said that the Medical Research Council has repeatedly found that the number of ‘excess deaths’ were far higher than the official death count formally attributed to COVID-19.
“The case numbers seem to be dropping consistently in the Western Cape. The international data bases also give the recent SA 14-day average as gradually dropping. Having said that, I am really concerned that the official statistics may not adequately represent the real situation on the ground,” she said.
Weekly excess death figures show that there could be much more people dying of the virus than the official of Covid-19 statistics would suggest. Graph: www.samrc.ac.za
According to Barnes, it was logical to assume that the case numbers, those who have or have had the disease, will also be commensurately higher. “How much higher and where these higher numbers occur are unknown and that makes informed decisions about efficient handling of a pandemic flawed” Barnes said.
Barnes said the decline in official figures did not diminish the possibility of a third wave, saying she doubted that even a fourth wave could be averted without a huge increase in efforts to vaccinate. She lamented that so far the vaccine rollout could not be termed a plan as it was “a wish list” and that government’s own planned numbers to be vaccinated this year did not add up, while the ‘plans’ to manage the complex business of rolling out the vaccine without waste or loss shrouded in secrecy.
Why all the secrecy surrounding rollout?
“I am starting to wonder whether these plans even exist in some instances,” Barnes said.
She said widespread vaccination is critical, but so far the speed with which this has been approached leaves a lot to be desired. Barnes said vaccinating small groups of special people will make no difference to the pandemic raging among the general public, but will be used as a ‘photo opportunity’ or public relations exercise.
She said the real drop in infections will largely depend on how quickly and efficiently the government could roll out substantial vaccination programmes but said the outlook for that was presently very poor.
She reiterated that all that the population has at present to fall back on is meticulous adherence to the non-pharmaceutical prevention measures such as masks, hand sanitising and social distancing.
“The outlook for that is not promising either. The education programmes, encouragement from public figures, explanations on why and how to best protect oneself are almost entirely absent. The pandemic response among the general public is not at present managed, but simply ‘policed’. That causes a lot of resentment and subsequent poor adherence,” she said.
Mammoth task ahead
Government is targeting 67% of the population to be vaccinated in order to achieve population immunity, also known as herd immunity. They hope to cover 40% of the population within 12 months.
Vials of Covishield, AstraZeneca-Oxford’s Covid-19 coronavirus vaccine, are pictured inside a lab where they are being manufactured at India’s Serum Institute in Pune on 22 January 2021. Picture: Punit Paranjpe/AFP
Dr Glenda Davison, associate professor and head of the Biomedical Sciences Department at Cape Peninsula University of Technology in Cape Town said this goal was achievable by the end of 2021, but it would be a huge task.
“The finer details of how this will be done have still not been fully explained… however, I am positive that if we receive our first batch of vaccines this week as promised, and begin the vaccination program immediately, this could be achieved. It will however need excellent planning in both distribution and administration. I do believe we have the expertise in South Africa to achieve this but it needs proper co-ordination,” she said.
Davison said the adjusted lockdown level 3 was working, saying not only have infection numbers come down but hospitalisations and deaths have also stabilised and slowly decreasing.
