Confederate gets the nod.
Horse racing aficionados reckon their game is superior to other forms of gambling because you need refined analytical skills to unearth winners.
They’ll be needing a high degree of those skills if they are to successfully unravel the mystery that is the Allied Steelrode – Onamission Charity Mile at Turffontein on Saturday.
There are so many imponderables and debateables about the 16-strong lineup that the Lotto starts to look a cinch.
The Charity Mile is a Grade 2 event with a R1-million purse, which makes it aspirational on a few levels.
But it’s also positioned in the calendar as a warm-up for the more prestigious Grade 1 Betway Summer Cup in a month’s time.
Which horses have specifically targeted this race and which are using it as preparation for Joburg’s biggest race?
One clue is that some runners return from fairly lengthy breaks, so will not be fully wound up for Saturday’s outing in elite company. But, of course, there are always those horses that enjoy running fresh!
Another helping hand in compiling a short list of likely winners are barrier draws – an important factor in 1600m races around Turffontein’s Standside course.
Guessing game
However, with several fancied contenders starting wide, it becomes a guessing game about gate speed, early pace and individual jockeys’ strategic and physical skills.
Then there’s the usual comparative form stats, distance capacities, weight considerations, equipment changes and more.
Just another day in the office for the “skilled” student of the racecard.
Favourite at 4.75 for the Charity Mile is four-year-old Confederate who has a fabulous race record of five wins and five seconds from 11 runs. He won a conditions race over 1450m a month ago to prove his race readiness. He was ridden by Rachel Venniker that day and she returns to the irons. Track and trip are A-OK.
Minus factor: draw 14 of 16. Possible mitigation: a propensity to race handy, suggesting he could get over to the inside rail early on – though that might use up too much energy.
Two runners starting wide would probably be shorter in the market than they are: Busstopinhounslow (draw 16, 8.00 a win) and Choisaanada (18, 8.00). These in-form youngsters get the best possible assistance in overcoming their barrier disadvantage: champion jockeys Richard Fourie and Gavin Lerena respectively.
In contrast, market rival Atticus Finch (9.00) is drawn in pole position and should be able to set the tempo of the race to suit himself.
Other handily drawn candidates include capable mare Callmegetrix (10.00) with capable Muzi Yeni on board, dark horse Aristotle (13.00) and KZN raider Imilenzeyokududuma (36.00).
Spumante Dolce, Otto Luyken and Texas Red also have arguments in their favour.
The Charity Mile is all in a very good cause, of course, but the gods of racing skill have shown punters no charity at all.
SELECTION
4 Confederate
15 Aristotle
9 Imilenzeyokududuma
1 Atticus Finch
