Numbers add up to Eight On Eighteen for Durban July

Logic, rationality and plain common sense tell us Eight On Eighteen will win the R5-million Hollywoodbets Durban July on Saturday 5 July.

If Eight On Eighteen runs to his true ability; if he doesn’t get badly hampered by other runners while navigating 2200m around Greyville; and if – as experts expect – he makes light of a relatively hefty 57kg weight against the best older horses in the country, he should win the 129th edition of South Africa’s biggest horse race and justify his hot favouritism.

But there are those ifs – and maybe more lurking. And some buts.

Uncertainty and intrigue are the lifeblood of racing.

There’ll be people who tip and back other runners, yet they’ll be relying not on cold, hard logic but on hunches, dreams, lucky numbers and the throwing of bones.

The case for Eight On Eighteen

· Of 10 starts as a two- and three-year-old, he has won five, including three Grade 1s, and has never finished out of the first three.

· All three Grade 1 wins have been over 2000m, so the July’s extra 200m will be no issue. His pedigree has both stamina and speed.

· He won the prestigious Cape Town Met, unusually as a three-year-old in open company.

· In his final prep race for the July, the Daily News 2000 at Greyville, he blew away his rivals with a jaw-dropping turn of speed in the final two furlongs.

· Trainer Justin Snaith said after that race, “The frightening thing is that there is so much still left in the tank!” After the Met and Cape Derby triumphs, months earlier, Snaith informed us that his charge then was fairly immature.

· Regular jockey and reigning champion Richard Fourie recently said the colt was one of the three best horses he’d ridden. Snaith Racing’s regular work rider Andrew Fortune – who has been in a few saddles in his 58 years – reckons Eight On Eighteen is nigh unbeatable.

· The quality of the 2025 Hollywoodbets Durban July opposition might not be exactly moderate but is not exceptional.

The ifs and buts:

· Eight On Eighteen carried 54kg to victory against older horses in the Met. The extra 3kg raises a small question mark. The last five July winners have carried 53kg-53.5kg.

· The Durban July is a notoriously rough and chaotic race, thanks to its glorious history and status. Snaith wryly notes, “All the jockeys lose their heads from the very start and anything can happen!”

· While some clever people reckon a draw in the middle of the field of 18 is ideal, others aren’t convinced and believe Eight On Eighteen’s No 11 gate is a tad wide and could see him shuffled back towards the rear of the field, out of the firing line, during the early frenzied charge.

· A number of other runners are relatively unexposed in this elite company but will have been quietly revved up in hopes of a mighty effort – and a mighty surprise – on the big day.

There is almost always a surprise or two among the top six July finishers.

Other contenders

The challenge is to find them.

Selukwe is a late developer who has come into his own since transferring from trainer Andre Nel’s Cape West Coast base to his satellite yard in KwaZulu-Natal. The five-year-old has shown superb speed down the short Greyville straight, notably in his last (and best) showing when he landed the Grade 3 Greyville 1900 by flashing past all rivals in the last stretch.

Nel looks confident, as does devoted rider Serino Moodley. Draw No 6 has something to do with that.

Atticus Finch won the Summer Cup on home turf at Turffontein but then lost his mojo with a trip to Cape Town for the summer season.

After a break, he has shown signs of a return to form. Draw No 4 is a big help, while veteran trainer Alec Laird knows exactly what it takes to win the big one.

Can Oriental Charm win again?

Defending champion Oriental Charm is a tenacious front-runner and seldom delivers a sub-par performance. This year’s burden of 60kg is a different proposition to the 53kg of 2024, but the four-year-old’s obvious class and the magic preparatory touch of young trainer James Crawford make him impossible to ignore.

Among the three-year-old contenders, Fabian Habib-trained Confederate probably carries the most credentials with a Grade 1 win in the SA Classic at Turffontein and a record of never being out of the first two in nine starts.

Former dual champion jockey and current New Zealand champion Warren Kennedy has made the long flight back to his hometown to try and win his first July on Confederate. Such long-distance commitment – and perhaps a new sense of detachment – suggest Kennedy isn’t one of the riders losing his head.

Other young horses who fit the much-desired up-and-coming, lightly weighted July profile include Immediate Edge, On My Honour and My Best Shot – and none of them would be a completely shocking winner.

The latter is very much a “dark horse”, coming from the supposed racing backwater of Eastern Cape racing, but has a very capable trainer in Alan Greeff and should not be left out of wider bet combinations.

Selection for Saturday’s Hollywoodbets Durban July

11 Eight On Eighteen

6 Selukwe

14 Confederate

1 Oriental Charm