However, even if global coffee and cocoa prices go down, it does not mean retail prices will also decrease.
The decrease in cocoa and global coffee prices is due to favourable weather conditions. Picture: iStock
After months of paying more for a cup of coffee or a bar of chocolate, South Africans could soon catch a break as global prices for both commodities begin to retreat, raising hopes of lower prices on supermarket shelves.
According to the World Bank Group, its beverage price index eased further in the second quarte of 2026 to a level about one-third lower than a year earlier.
“This reversal of the preceding sharp rise in prices reflects improved supply prospects for both cocoa and coffee,” said the World Bank Group.
However, even if global coffee and cocoa prices go down, it does not mean retail prices will also go decrease.
Coffee prices go down
The World Bank Group noted that after surging by 18% in 2025, the index is projected to decline by 30% in 2026, before stabilising in 2027.
“Beverage markets are expected to face limited disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East but could be affected by a stronger‑than‑expected El Niño,” it said.
The index noted that coffee prices continued to ease in the second quarter of 2026, helped by stronger global supply prospects and the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian imports earlier in the year.
Good news for coffee lovers
Agribiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo noted in an Instagram post that South Africa imports most of its coffee, and a closer look at imports by volume shows the country averaged about 23 921 tonnes per annum over the past five years.
“Brazil and Vietnam are major producers of coffee beans, and they faced drought last season, leading to a poor harvest and, subsequently, an increase in coffee prices,” he said. Brazil and Vietnam accounted for 54% of South Africa’s coffee imports.
He said the drop in prices is good news for coffee lovers, and it’s all thanks to favourable weather conditions.
“Right now, Arabica prices are 17% below their level a year ago, and Robusta prices are 25% lower than a year ago. We see the supply improving as the weather conditions have been favourable.”
Other suppliers of caffeine to SA
Sihlobo added that South Africa imports most of its coffee.
“Other coffee suppliers to South Africa include Uganda (8% of SA’s imports), Tanzania (7%), Colombia (4%), Guatemala (4%), Ethiopia (3%), and Honduras (3%). Trade Map data show that these countries account for 84% of South Africa’s coffee imports,” he said.
“So, as production improves and global coffee prices ease, we certainly welcome this trend as South Africans and as coffee drinkers of this great country.”
Chocolate prices to go down
The World Bank Group noted that cocoa prices have edged higher over the past three months, averaging $4.35/kg in June, but remain more than 50% lower than a year ago.
“The steep drop from the early‑2025 peak reflects a sharp improvement in supply for the 2025-26 season, along with softer demand,” the organisation noted.
“Favourable weather in West Africa – especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together produce about 60% of the world’s cocoa – has fuelled a strong production rebound.”
50% drop in chocolate prices
“Output this season is estimated to be more than one third higher than last year, pushing the global stocks‑to‑grindings ratio to 43%, slightly above its long‑term average of 41%,” said the World Bank Group.
Prices are expected to drop by more than 50% in 2026 before stabilising in 2027 as markets rebalance.
“Still, the outlook remains weather‑sensitive. A stronger‑than‑expected El Niño could disrupt the recovery and tighten supplies again.”
