Asteroid collision course: NASA monitors V-Day 2046 impact risk

NASA says it has been tracking a newly-discovered 50-metre asteroid called 2023 DW which could hit Earth on Valentine’s Day in the year 2046.

The 2023 DW asteroid – roughly the size of an Olympic swimming pool – was first detected in February, and the preliminary data was worrying.

Asteroid 2023 DW

At the time of publishing, the asteroid was 24.1 million kilometres from Earth, while the current velocity relative the Sun is 22.59 kilometres per second.

Chance of impact

In February, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre predicting a 1 in 625 chance of impact.

However, NASA has since clarified the statement by explaining that the odds of impact decrease over time as new data is used on a daily basis to recalculate the risks.

“Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future,” NASA said.

According to the most recent recalculations, Asteroid 2023 DW has a 1 in 770 chance of impact, indicating a 99.87% probability of it not colliding with Earth.

No need to fret

The team of scientists and orbit analysts will continue to monitor 2023 DW in case a planetary defense project is required to prevent a disastrous Valentine’s Day.

Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defence office, said the odds of impact will decrease over time, adding:

No one needs to be worried about this guy.

That said, if 2023 DW should slam into Earth when passing by our region of space, it won’t be pretty…

What if it hits…?

When an asteroid measuring 18 metres in width exploded about the Chelyabinsk region in Russia, it generated a blast equal to around 500 kilotons of explosives.

That is roughly 26 to 33 times the energy released by the Hiroshima bomb.

Incidentally, the Chelyabinsk meteor strike happened on 13 February 2013. Make of the February connection what you will…

Asteroid 2023 DW: Stats for nerds

The space rock takes approximately 271 days to complete one solar orbit with a perihelion (closest distance to the Sun) of 0.5 (astronomical unit) AU.

For reference, 1 AU is equal to 150 million kilometers.

At its nearest point to Earth in the year 2046, Asteroid 2023 DW will pass by our Goldilocks planet at an approximate distance of 3 million kilometres.

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