Summer weather alert: Lowveld faces flood and drought risks amid La Niña
Despite above-average dam levels, the Lowveld faces uneven rainfall and rising temperatures this summer, as well as increasing drought stress for agriculture.
As the 2024/25 hydrological year concludes, the Lowveld region finds itself in a complex water scenario, bolstered by strong dam reserves yet facing heightened flood and heat risks heading into summer.
The Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) reports that rainfall across the water management area, including key Lowveld catchment areas like the Sabie-Sand and Crocodile systems, has exceeded historical averages. This has resulted in normal to above-normal river flows, with short-lived peaks caused by scattered thunderstorms.
Kwena Dam, which serves Mbombela and Nkomazi, recorded higher-than-normal releases due to elevated temperatures and evaporation losses. Most major dams in the Lowveld are above 80% capacity, with Inyaka (Bushbuckridge) at 93.56%, Klipkopjes (White River) at 83.30%, and Driekoppies (Nkomazi) at 86.99%.
The overall dam storage level stands at 93.1%, up from 87.03% last year, though recent months show a downward trend.
ALSO READ: Lowveld weather alert: Rain predicted, wet roads ahead – drive safely
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) anticipates a possible transition to a weak La Niña event, which typically brings wetter conditions to the northeast, including the Lowveld. While this could sustain water availability, it also raises the likelihood of flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage or vulnerable riverbanks.
MEDIA RELEASE: Summer season likely to bring above average rainfall pic.twitter.com/vSBlvPtz5K
— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) September 30, 2025
Despite the general forecast of above-normal rainfall in summer rainfall zones, parts of Mpumalanga, including sections of the Lowveld, may see below-average rainfall. This could worsen drought stress in some agricultural areas, prompting SAWS to urge farmers to adopt soil conservation and water-harvesting techniques.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most of the Lowveld. This increases the risk of heat-related illnesses and the spread of foodborne pathogens. Residents are advised to stay hydrated, avoid prolonged sun exposure, and ensure food safety during warmer months.
Both IUCMA and SAWS stress the importance of flood awareness:
• Avoid crossing rivers on foot or by vehicle.
• Stay clear of riverbanks, especially in lower catchments.
• Ensure proper drainage around homes and farms.
• Monitor weather alerts and act early to prevent injury or loss.
