Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show that South Africa's fourth week fuel outlook has flipped from relief to renewed pain.
More pain at the pumps for motorists. Picture: iStock
With just a week left before the petrol prices kick in, motorists have been warned to brace for another fuel price hike after global oil prices hit $100 (R1 600) a barrel.
This has pushed petrol price recoveries by R2 per litre in July, and hammered diesel recoveries deeper into the red.
CEF
Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show that South Africa’s fourth week fuel outlook has flipped from relief to renewed pain, after starting the month with an over-recovery of R2.50 per litre.
The new data raises the risk of price hikes in August that will hit motorists and the wider economy.
Motorists may still see a modest cut at the pumps, but it barely dents the R6‑per‑litre gap that opened when the Iran war sent fuel markets spiralling.
Grim picture
The picture for diesel is far worse. What began as an over‑recovery of R3 per litre at the start of the month has flipped dramatically, leaving the fuel on track for a hike of up to R1.10 per litre.
End‑of‑week recoveries paint a grim picture:
The CEF data show petrol prices still showing an over-recovery of 34 cents per litre, while diesel recoveries are under or in the red, with 0.05% (500 ppm) diesel recording an under-recovery of R1.31 and 0.005% (50 ppm) diesel at an under-recovery of R 1.11 per litre.
Illuminating paraffin has also swung into under-recovery, now at R1.03 cents per litre.
Fuel price outlook
If these forecasts hold, motorists could see the following adjustments in August 2026:
- Octane 93 petrol: decrease of 34 cents per litre
- Octane 95 petrol: decrease of 29 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: increase of R1.31 per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: decrease of R1.11 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R1.03 per litre
Energy hit
The renewed energy hit follows a widening of the Middle East conflict that has now spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
US President Donald Trump said he’s now considering a “massive attack” on Iran to push the nation to negotiate a peace deal.
It’s against that backdrop that crude breached $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in two months.
