Winning Joburg votes may not mean winning city hall for DA

The City of Joburg is heading towards an election that could produce a winner without producing a government.

With the 4 November local government elections approaching, the battle for Gauteng’s metros is increasingly less a contest over who gets the most votes and more a high-stakes negotiation over who is willing to govern with whom.

And nowhere is that more fascinating than Johannesburg. The DA has made its intentions unmistakable. It wants Joburg.

Mayoral candidate Helen Zille’s campaign has been unusually energetic, highly visible and built around a simple message: the city is broken and the DA can fix it. Recent polling has even placed the party tantalisingly close to an outright majority.

But there is a problem. Winning the election and winning city hall are not necessarily the same thing.

Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie has made it clear his party does not want Zille as mayor. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba, once the DA’s Joburg mayor, has also drawn a political line in the sand. The EFF, meanwhile, is hardly expected to ride to Zille’s rescue.

Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks has also said his party will not allow a third DA experiment, saying the party was given two chances to lead the metro and failed on both occasions.

This creates a dilemma for Zille’s mayoral race. The DA could emerge as the largest party and still find itself unable to make Zille mayor.

That is where the real election may begin.

The most intriguing possibility is a deal with the ANC. Until recently, such a partnership would have sounded politically impossible.

But South African politics has changed. The government of national unity has already demonstrated former enemies can become new governing partners when political numbers demand it.

However far-fetched it may seem, the DA has not completely closed the door on working with the ANC in Joburg. If neither party wins a majority, a DA-ANC arrangement could offer something Gauteng’s metros have desperately lacked – numbers large enough to create a more stable administration.

The price, however, could be enormous. Would the ANC accept Zille as mayor? Would the DA accept an ANC mayor in Tshwane or Ekurhuleni in exchange for Joburg?

Could Gauteng’s three metros become bargaining chips in one grand post-election negotiation? That possibility should not be dismissed.

We may yet see political horse trading in which parties agree one governs Joburg, another Tshwane and another Ekurhuleni, with positions and committees distributed to secure governing majorities. Voters may cast separate ballots, but coalition negotiations could produce a Gauteng-wide chessboard.

For the DA, the challenge is therefore bigger than campaigning. It must convince other parties that supporting a DA-led government does not mean surrendering their political identities.

It may need to offer meaningful roles, policy compromises and a credible coalition agreement that prevents the constant motions of no confidence that have turned Joburg into a revolving door of mayors.

But a more personal question hangs over the race. Is the resistance really about the DA, or about Zille herself?

Her experience and political weight are assets. Her combative style, however, may make coalition-building harder.

In a fragmented political environment, arrogance – whether real or perceived – can become an expensive political liability.

Joburg may, therefore, deliver the most unsettling result of all – a clear winner, but no obvious government.

And if parties fail to learn the lessons of the past five years, Gauteng could be preparing for another round of coalition chaos – only with different faces sitting around the table.