KZN lining up the pieces against Ramaphosa ahead of ANC conference

The current rallying of forces behind former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize and the sentiments against ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa in KwaZulu-Natal means the province will not be a safe bet for him at the ANC end-of-year elective conference, say political experts.

Further, Ramaphosa himself was aware KZN was out of reach, hence he has been amassing support in the other provinces, particularly the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga.

The experts said Ramaphosa could not rely on the untested backing of KZN premier Sihle Zikalala.

Zikalala has shown some sympathy for him, but commentators said his support was uncertain and unreliable.

The ANC’s Musa Dladla region has expressed its support for former president Jacob Zuma after its leaders visited his Nkandla home.

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The region claimed he was ill-treated by the ANC top leadership. The region offered to support him throughout his corruption trial.

This was seen as part of the rally against Ramaphosa for the ANC December conference. Political economy analyst Dr Daniel Silke said KZN was predisposed against Ramaphosa.

“There will be a preponderance of support against Ramaphosa in KZN by some branches in favour of an alternative candidate, potentially Zweli Mkhize or someone else,” Silke said.

Mkhize received backing to become an ANC presidential candidate from the amabutho, or warriors, in rural KwaZulu-Natal at the weekend. He used the opportunity to announce his availability for the race.

Another analyst, Dr Ralph Mathekga, dismissed Mkhize’s claim there was a conspiracy behind his downfall as not provable.

“Mkhize is playing the big stakes and he is feeling cornered, hence he will fight with all he has to try to salvage his political career, even if that involves receiving support from amabutho. He cannot prove there was a conspiracy,” Mathekga said.

Nelson Mandela Bay-based analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said it was not surprising that there was a rallying of forces against Ramaphosa in KZN.

He said the province was the terrain of the radical economic transformation elements (RET) and was not a safe bet for Ramaphosa.

Even the provincial conference outcomes to elect the KZN ANC provincial executive committee was out for the Thuma Mina brigade, or Ramaphosa supporters.

“The president is aware that he has no support in KZN, hence he made sure to accumulate his support in the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga. All the Thuma Mina brigade can do is to neutralise the RET and minimise their impact in other provinces.”

The analyst said Mkhize did not have national support, either, and to compensate for that he was set to join forces with RET and Lindiwe Sisulu, another presidential hopeful.

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He said Mkhize was technically in the clear to contest because he took the Digital Vibes graft matter on review. Breakfast reiterated that Ramaphosa was set to win a second term, but the RET faction would pose a threat to him.

However, the RET’s poor national footprint would give Ramaphosa an advantage in December. Mkhize was heavily criticised for using the tribal card to launch his presidential campaign.

Well known former KZN ANC activist Siyanda Mhlongo said Mkhize used the tribal tactics used by former IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi and the ANC national executive committee must condemn him for this, as all the forebears of the party disapproved of tribalism.