Opinion: ANC KZN trapped between a rock and hard place

The ANC KwaZulu-Natal leadership, which recently announced that it has activated its elections machinery ahead of next year’s polls, has a mountain to climb.

Elected in August on an anti-President Cyril Ramaphosa ticket, the ANC provincial leadership now finds itself with a tricky assignment of having to please him while at the same pretending to be on the side of his influential KZN opponents which include former president Jacob Zuma.

When delegates to the ANC August provincial elective conference threw their weight behind the likes of Siboniso Duma, the party’s KZN chairperson, the future looked bright for the newly-elected leadership.

Duma easily defeated the incumbent at the time, former premier Sihle Zikalala, who had fallen out favour with the influential anti-Ramaphosa bloc after being accused of cosying up to the President.

Zikalala’s opponents in the province had cleverly branded him and other top leaders such as former provincial secretary, Mdumiseni Ntuli as Ramaphosa’s Ankoles – the President’s favourite cattle breed.

Anyone familiar with ANC KZN politics would know that being branded a Ramaphosa supporter in the province was tantamount to be called out as the party’s number one enemy in the province.

On the other hand, those leading party members in KZN who declare their dislike for Ramaphosa stand a good chance of being elected to senior positions within the party in the province.

It was therefore not surprising that the first task handed to the newly-elected ANC provincial leadership by its anti-Ramaphosa supporters was to get Ramaphosa booted out of office at the ANC national elective conference which took place in December.

The newly-elected ANC KZN leadership was instructed by party branches in the province to do whatever was necessary to ensure that former health minister, Zweli Mkhize, was elected as party president at the organisation’s national elective conference.

At the time, the assignment given to the leading part provincial leadership appeared to be nothing more than a walk in the park.

At the time, Ramaphosa, who the current ANC provincial leadership now has to sell to members of the party in KZN, appeared to be heading for the political wilderness, with the Phala Phala farm scandal exhibiting all the hallmarks of the proverbial final nail in the coffin.

Former ANC Kokstad Mayor, Bheki Mtolo, whom the anti-Ramaphosa KZN wave swept to the influential position of provincial secretary, elbowing out the incumbent Ntuli, was so confident of executing the mandate of the province’s anti-Ramaphosa brigade when a week before the national conference he boldly declared: “I can tell you now, without fear of contradiction, that come December 20 (the national conference elections results announcement day) Zweli Mkhize will be the next president of the ANC”.

A victory for Mkhize meant that the new ANC KZN leadership would no longer have to serve two masters: Ramaphosa and ANC KZN members – most of whom are opposed to Ramaphosa.

However, as we all now know, Mtolo’s predictions turned out to be wrong as delegates at the ANC national elective conference threw their weight behind Ramaphosa, putting the ANC KZN leadership in the invidious position it now finds itself in.

The outcome of the ANC national elective conferences compels the ANC KZN provincial leadership to rally behind Ramaphosa.

Ordinarily convincing your own party members to embrace their democratically elected leader should not be a huge ask.

However, in the ANC in KZN asking party members to embrace Ramaphosa appears to be a big ask indeed.

Without any doubt, the ANC’s provincial leadership’s support for Ramaphosa would definitely not go down well with the majority of party members in the province – particularly those supporting Zuma.

As things stand, the ANC provincial leadership has already committed itself to supporting Zuma during his court appearances.

It is a well-known fact that Zuma, who has since dragged Ramaphosa to court over the President’s handling of the former head of state’s complaint against senior prosecutor, Billy Downer, SC, uses these court appearances to launch attacks on Ramaphosa and the ANC-led government.

Zuma and his supporters within the KZN ANC believe that Ramaphosa has the power to block the former president’s arms deal trial but that the President was not doing so purely because he has a grudge against Zuma.

There is no doubt that Zuma’s key supporters such as former ANC spokesperson, Carl Niehaus, view his court appearances as an opportunity to lash out at Ramaphosa and his government.

In any case, the throngs of Zuma supporters who gather outside court during his appearances do not have an appetite for pro-Ramaphosa speeches – they simply do not like the man.

The level of dislike they habour towards Ramaphosa is such that they would not mind if the ANC were to be voted out of power in next year’s national elections as long as such a loss contributed to his humiliation.

While the ANC KZN leadership now wants Ramaphosa defended at every turn, it also needs the support of party members in the province ahead of next year’s general elections.

While it would be interesting to see how, going forward, the ANC provincial leadership will manage these political contradictions, for the ANC KZN leadership, there is one thing for sure – the road ahead is a bumpy one.

Originally published on The Witness.