Despite speculation of his resignation, political analysts argue Cyril Ramaphosa remains secure in office.
Two leading political analysts believe it is unlikely President Cyril Ramaphosa will resign, or be forced to step down, because there is no crisis to warrant this – and the balance of forces favours him.
The experts were responding to weekend reports suggesting Ramaphosa intends to resign, a move that, were it to happen, would shock the nation.
Reports of resignation after G20 summit
According to the reports, the president plans to step down after the G20 summit in Johannesburg at the end of November.
They mentioned Ramaphosa’s recent statement indirectly praising DA governance in municipalities and urging ANC councillors to emulate the DA in their own municipalities.
The speculation further indicated that Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe would serve as acting president, while Deputy President Paul Mashatile, who is next in line to succeed Ramaphosa, would remain on the sidelines.
‘No crisis or scandal’
Political analyst Dirk Kotzé said for the president to resign there would have to be such a huge scandal or crisis that it would be impossible for him to survive.
“At the moment, there is no crisis or scandal involving the president that would warrant him resigning. It is highly unlikely that such a resignation will happen,” Kotzé said.
The scandal would have to be so bad that it could cause the ANC to collapse or a crisis in the country, he said.
A president is removed through a motion of no confidence in parliament and not political recall by a party.
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The president should have committed “a serious violation of the constitution or the law”, “serious misconduct” or “inability to perform the functions of office”.
The ANC, as a party, does not have a mechanism to remove a sitting president of the country.
Mbeki’s resignation and ANC recalls
“Even former president Thabo Mbeki had to resign of his own accord; otherwise, the so-called recall used by the ANC to remove him would have been unofficial,” Kotzé said.
“I am not sure about the motivation of those who say the president will resign. He does not necessarily have majority support within the ANC, but there is no crisis or scandal surrounding the president. Also, I don’t see anyone who can replace him at the moment.”
Ramaphosa’s support
Besides, said independent political analyst Sandile Swana, Ramaphosa is in a strong position to remain in power, despite those who may attempt to undermine him or plot his downfall.
He is supported by the political right and centre-right, and big business and his supporters are united in their desire for him to continue leading.
Additionally, the left-wing has been unable to advocate strongly for his downfall because he has been shielded by the right, comprising the DA, FF Plus, IFP and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
These parties are reinforced by big business that was the architect of the government of national unity (GNU) established last year.
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Left-wing opposition struggles to mount pressure
“At this point in time, the balance of forces does not compel Ramaphosa to resign, although there are reasons for him to do so, given his capability and the pressure from parties like uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) and the EFF.
“But those who put him in office – big business, the DA, the conservatives – still want him there.
“So he is relatively well protected and the left has not done enough to make Ramaphosa’s position untenable to the point that he would resign – to run away from whatever storm is coming from the left,” Swana said.
Ramaphosa enjoyed strong support within the parties that comprise the GNU.
Recently, PA leader Gayton McKenzie said he would oppose any move to remove the president.
“So Ramaphosa is safe in office because of the right-wing, which includes a lot of the GNU that is supported by big business.
“It is clear that the left–wing parties, including MK, the EFF and others, have not been able to generate sufficient groundswell to overthrow Ramaphosa.
“He is likely to remain in office, complete his term, and be in a strong position to do so,” Swana said.
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