Zuma’s back against the wall as Sona gets postponed

President Jacob Zuma had asked for a postponement of his State of the Nation address (Sona) because he was facing imminent embarrassing opposition from his ruling ANC party, which would have used a motion of no confidence to remove him from power if he continue to defy it, a top analyst said.

Speaker Baleka Mbete postponed the Sona indefinitely at Zuma’s request and due to mounting pressure from the opposition parties that Zuma must go before presenting his annual speech in parliament.

The ANC was expected to come on to him like a ton of bricks when the national executive committee (NEC) would have met today and show him the door. The NEC meeting has been pushed out to the weekend of February 17-18, just days before the scheduled Budget Speech in Parliament.

In a clear miscalculation, Zuma defied the party’s top six brass who requested him to step down and this forced the national working committee, which sat urgently at Luthuli House on Monday, to propose for Zuma’s immediate removal.

But political analyst Dumisani Hlophe said Zuma’s request for his speech postponement was due to circumstances beyond his control.

“I don’t think it was a voluntary request, I think circumstances beyond his control forced him to do this,” Hlophe said.

“Besides the resistance from the opposition, he was facing resistance from within his own party, the ANC, in parliament and that would have been an embarrassment for him,” he said.

On Sunday, Zuma refused when asked by five of the top six to resign in the interest of the ANC and the country.

Instead he told them that he had done no wrong and that South Africans still liked him.

The national working committee (NWC), which sat at Luthuli House on Monday after being summoned by the top six, decided to propose Zuma’s dismissal – a proposal which was supposed to be taken to the higher structure, the NEC.

With his intransigence, Zuma has miscalculated because many of his allies in the NEC could turn against him as allegiances shift away from him towards the new party president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

Although he has a few allies standing by him, the sand is shifting from under Zuma’s feet. Save for Zuma diehards like party secretary-general Ace Magashule and his deputy Jessie Duarte many of Zuma’s allies see a better future under Ramaphosa.

As Zuma’s successor in the party, Ramaphosa is expected to succeed him as the country’s president in 2019, should the ANC win the election again.

At a media briefing at Luthuli House yesterday, Duarte said she could not say “which way it will go” when the NEC decides on Zuma. Duarte implied that the matter could reach a stalemate at the NEC and a vote might be required.

Judging from the NWC debate, which was said to be heated with Zuma supporters adamant that he must be allowed to finish his term, the NEC discussion in Cape Town was poised to be difficult. According to analyst Hlophe, unlike in 2008 when the ANC removed Mbeki, this time the party was motivated by national interest to oust Zuma.

“It is a decision that is self-motivated. But my view is that it points to the ANC’s ability or inability to govern itself. “There is chaos at party level, not in the state. This has led to the paralysis at the top, hence the postponement of Sona. The ultimate challenge is not Zuma, but how the party whips its members into line,” Hlophe said.

If the NEC resolves to remove Zuma, it would be in line with his own assertion that he would only leave once the NEC decided that he must go. But Hlophe said there was a strong possibility Zuma would have faced opposition from ANC MPs if he continued to defy the party.

“That could have been embarrassing for him. Also the ANC could have been seen as not being in charge.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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