Eight On Eighteen floating to July winning post

The phrase “weighted win” is guaranteed to turn any punter’s head.

Well, if colt Eight On Eighteen competes in the Hollywoodbets Durban July in six weeks’ time, he will be weighted to win – and easily at that.

The Justin Snaith-trained prodigy has been given a two-point merit rating rise for his facile victory in the past weekend’s Daily News 2000 – from 127 to 129. That’s a giddily high number for a three-year-old horse but is justified by three Grade 1 wins in just 10 outings, with a Grade 1 second thrown in, too.

It makes him the highest rated of the 48 remaining entries for the July, with five-year-old See It Again in second position on 127.

MRs are for determining imposts in handicap races, but the July isn’t a pure handicap; it’s a “conditions” race, with a bit of this and a bit of that in terms of make-up. Though the race rules set the top weight at 60kg, they also limit the maximum weight for three-year-olds to 57kg.

Theoretically, See It Again will lug 60kg and Eight On Eighteen will have to carry only 57kg, despite his two-point higher MR. Knowledgeable Turf Talk puts this advantage at a nett 4kg.

It’s “theoretically” as the line-up for the country’s biggest race is a long way from being finalised.

Uncertain for July

Indeed, Eight On Eighteen’s connections have maintained for weeks that their star is by no means a definite July runner. He is hot property value-wise – for racing in the near future and for stud purposes in the long term – and, as Snaith stated on Saturday, the July is always a rough affair with everyone involved hell-bent on getting their names into the history books.

“Committing to the July, we’ve had a lot of horses go wrong in the race,” said Snaith after Saturday’s Daily News 2000 at Greyville in Durban.

“It’s the most interesting race in South Africa as, when the starting stalls open, the jockeys completely lose their heads and their brains. Its importance, history … there’s so much at play in a race like that and you also have to think about his wellbeing. It’s a decision that will be made a little later, but when you have a horse of this ability it’s very hard not to go for a race like that. We will put it all in and make the call.”

Many a racing fan would lay short odds on owners Nick Jonsson and Johan Rupert going for it. The two gentlemen are in the game for the thrills and there’s no bigger thrill than winning a July.

Durban July odds

In terms of laying odds, July sponsors Hollywoodbets have chopped Eight On Eighteen’s big-race ante-post odds by half – from 5-1 last week to 5-2.

July defending champion and second favourite Oriental Charm has eased from 6-1 to 7-1.

In adjusting merit ratings after Saturday’s Daily News 2000, the handicappers made runner-up Spumante Dolce their line horse, keeping her rating at 117.

Okavango, who finished third, was pushed up sharply from 105 to 120, having finished 0.25 lengths behind Spumante Dolce while conceding 2.5kg in weight. Native Ruler, who finished 0.3 lengths behind Okavango, also got a big bump: 103 to 119.

Little Suzie, winner of the Tote Woolavington 2000 – also for Snaith – had her rating raised from 106 to 108.