Senteeko Dam Update: Engineers rule out rising water levels
The Crocodile River is currently estimated to be flowing at 300 cubic metres per second past Kaapmuiden.
Fears that the Senteeko Dam is on the brink of collapsing may be unfounded after the latest Umjindi Barberton engineering reports show that the dam levels are unlikely to increase.
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The reports shared that the De Kaap River was flowing at around 70 cubic metres per second overnight on January 19, and is currently flowing at around 40 cubic metres per second.
@lowvelder Barberton area flood warning: Senteeko Dam wall at risk of collapse. #floods #dam #damwall #barberton
“The Crocodile River is currently flowing past Kaapmuiden at around 300 cubic metres per second. This includes the inflow from the De Kaap River, “ the report read.
Engineering assessments showed that should the Senteeko Dam collapse, it would result in no more than 50 additional cubic metres per second in the volume of water flowing into the Crocodile River near Matsulu.
The duration will last approximately eight hours.
“This means it will look very much like it did on January 19. The Crocodile River will be no higher than at any peak in the past two weeks,” the report assured residents.
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As a result, the lower reaches of the De Kaap River, approaching the Crocodile River, would experience flood levels up to 30% higher than those recorded on the evening of January 19.
EVACUATION ALERT! Residents and businesses downstream of Senteeko Dam (Barberton-Kaapsehoop) must evacuate immediately due to imminent risk of dam wall failure, which could release 1.82 million cubic metres of water into the Suidkaap area.#MpumalangaFloods2026 #NationalDisaster… pic.twitter.com/9NZyJBsv09
— GCIS_Mpumalanga (@GCISMpumalanga) January 20, 2026
Based on water levels recorded today, January 20, the Crocodile River would likely return to its overnight levels of January 19.
Evacuation orders along the De Kaap River remain and residents should take note that the higher reaches of its tributaries will reach dangerous levels in a short time if the dam collapses.
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The municipality warned residents to avoid low-water bridges crossing the river, and avoid putting themselves in any dangerous situations given the expected higher levels.
*This article was amended after publishing
