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Winter heart-warmer? Fuel prices expected to be easier on the pocket in June
Early fuel price forecast for June revs up hopes for the first drop in petrol prices since January. Get the latest projected figures here.
Current data indicates that conditions are positive for a drop in petrol and diesel prices in June 2024. Photo: iStock
Mzansi motorists may be able to go an extra mile or two come June if early forecasts for the month’s fuel prices materialise. This sliver of hope comes on the back of May’s fuel price hike which pushed petrol prices over the R25 per litre mark.
The price of both 93 and 95 petrol increased by 37c/litre, with a litre of 93 octane petrol costing Mzansi motorists R25.15 and R25.49 for 95 octane.
Diesel prices, however, saw a drop of 30c/litre and 36c/ litre for 0.05% sulphur and 0.005% sulphur respectively.
2024’s petrol price pain at the pumps so far
The last time motorists were given a break from the ever-rising cost of petrol, was back in January.
Starting with a 76 cents per litre cut in January (95 petrol, prices saw a combined increase of R3/litre from February to May – a net increase of R2.24 since the start of the year).
Compared to the petrol price pain at the pumps, diesel prices have totalled a net increase of only 12 cents/litre this year.
June fuel price: Expected changes in petrol and diesel
The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data for the first week of May (ie. up until 7 May) indicates an over-recovery in fuel prices, which, if it holds, could translate into lower prices at the pumps.
Petrol prices are showing an over-recovery of 34c/litre, while diesel is showing an over-recovery of between 68 and 73c/litre.
Main drivers: Rand/dollar, global oil prices
Fuel prices are adjusted on the first Wednesday of a month and are primarily determined by the international price of oil and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
Currently, the rand and oil prices are contributing to the over-recovery. Both would have to turn negative (the rand weakening and a rise in oil prices) to swing the over-recovery to an under-recovery.
- At the time of writing on 9 May, the rand was trading at R18.37 against the US dollar
- The price of Brent Crude Oil stood at $82.06 per barrel.
Official fuel price: DMRE has the final say
As always, the data comes with the caveat that it is still early in the month, and market conditions can still swing before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) makes the final announcement at the end of this month.
According to the department, the unaudited CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.
- The official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 5 June.
Stay tuned to The Citizen for more fuel price updates towards the end of this month.
