Diesel users should brace for the steepest hikes.
South Africa’s end‑July fuel outlook has flipped from relief to renewed pain. Picture: iStock
With just a day before the new petrol price kicks in, the fuel price over-recovery has evaporated, with motorists warned to brace for price hikes, especially diesel users.
South Africans, already reeling under a punishing economic climate, now face the prospect of little to no relief at the fuel pumps.
Last month, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate steady at 7%, sparing households from another financial blow. But fuel prices are moving in the opposite direction.
CEF Data
Month‑end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) showed the over‑recovery for Petrol 95 has flipped into an under‑recovery, while Petrol 93’s cushion has shrunk to just 5 cents per litre.
Diesel users should brace for the steepest hikes, with under‑recoveries pointing to increases of between R1.75 and R1.90 per litre.
Oil and Rand
The reversal follows a surge in global oil prices in late July, driven by renewed conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East.
After briefly easing to $70 a barrel earlier in the month, crude spiked to $100 when fighting reignited, and the Strait of Hormuz was shut. Prices have since moderated to around $83.52, but volatility remains high.
The rand has also added pressure. It weakened to R16.80 against the dollar after the Reserve Bank held interest rates, before recovering slightly to R16.50/$ on stronger inflation data and a budget surplus.
Fuel price outlook
If these forecasts hold, motorists could see the following adjustments in August 2026:
- Octane 93 petrol: decrease of 5 cents per litre
- Octane 95 petrol: no change (0 cents per litre)
- Diesel 0.05%: increase of R1.91per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: increase of R1.76 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R1.51 per litre
Filling up
This is how much it could cost to fill up a vehicle with petrol or diesel if the above price comes into effect from Wednesday, 5 August 2026.
The renewed energy hit follows a widening of the Middle East conflict that has now spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
