In the interests of stability, it would be best for the ANC to split

Using an indistinct 2019 recording of Helen Zille, critics say she wants the Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a coalition with the ANC. The recording hints in that direction. Separately, in a tweet recycled from 17 August, TimesLIVE says: “Zille doesn’t rule out a coalition with the ANC after 2024.”

The Twitter headline, based on a podcast in which Peter Bruce interviews Zille, is misleading. In the podcast, Bruce asks: “But you wouldn’t rule out going into coalition at provincial or even national level with the ANC?”

Zille: “We would rule out making any statement before an election because that could be entirely misinterpreted. Our job going into the election is saying, rather vote for us than the ANC because you can get blue government which is the best form of government SA has yet experienced.”

She does not directly answer yes or no to the question. These attempts to prove Zille wants an ANC coalition arise in response to reports in three Sunday newspapers saying ActionSA is in talks with the ANC. That’s newsworthy because ActionSA campaigned to get rid of the ANC. Has it flip-flopped?

Yesterday, ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba told Clement Manyathela on Radio 702 that if South Africans say the party must work with the ANC, he will step down.

ALSO READ: ANC plotting to take other Gauteng metros after snatching Joburg from DA

“He says he can’t negotiate with the party. Says he would rather walk away from ActionSA,” according to Manyathela.

It won’t be the first time Mashaba has walked away when his will doesn’t prevail. He quit as Joburg mayor and DA member in 2019. Yet this fuss about who will or won’t talk to the ANC is misplaced. Here’s why.

With the ANC shrinking, coalitions are inevitable. In Johannesburg, we are witnessing the instability of coalitions dependent on tiny, capricious parties which do not represent many voters. To fix this, an amendment is required to raise the bar so that parties will need a minimum of, for example, five percent of the vote in order to be represented. Minimum thresholds contribute to the relative stability of European coalitions.

Wherever the bar is set, the ANC will be represented. It cannot be ignored. But which ANC? There is an ideological battle for control of the party. While there is no good ANC – corruption is ingrained – there are differences between the radical left and the rest.

Those within the ANC who lean towards the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are a threat to democracy and prosperity. They belong in the EFF, which is destined to remain a smaller party because most South Africans are not radical.

Quoting a recent survey on the EFF, Gareth van Onselen says it is likely “there just isn’t that big a market in SA – a reasonably conservative electorate – for radical socialism”.

In the interests of stability, it would be best for the ANC to split, with the radical left joining the EFF or forming their own party. Then it would make sense for the DA to come to an arrangement with the ANC.

South Africa’s best hope lies in a centrist coalition, which would be widely supported. This requires channels of communication between parties, including the ANC.

NOW READ: ‘Managing coalition not a rosy picture’: Mayor insists Tshwane is stable amid Joburg drama