Trump may have changed the tone, but America's interests will not disappear when a new president is elected.
President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump. Picture: Getty Images
Many in South Africa cling to the tempting belief that the country’s rocky ties with the US are merely a Donald Trump problem.
Some believe when the US president leaves office in January 2029, the tension will ease and Pretoria and Washington can get back to business.
But what if Trump is not the real problem? What if the bigger issue is American foreign policy itself?
Trump may have changed the tone, but America’s interests will not disappear when a new president is elected.
SA has increasingly found itself caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war. On one side is the US and its Western partners. On the other are rising powers such as China and Russia.
Pretoria insists it does not want to choose. Its position is clear: SA should decide for itself where its interests lie.
Washington “had run out of patience” with President Cyril Ramaphosa, warning visa restrictions are only the first step in escalating measures against Pretoria, according to US ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III.
Bozell said Afrikaner safety, land expropriation, investment security and condemning the Kill the Boer chant were among Washington’s top “asks” – all of which Ramaphosa has ignored.
But these “asks” mask real concerns. The real issue is Pretoria’s closeness to Beijing, Moscow and its stance on Israel.
Trump has shown the US can engage with countries it considers rivals. He has spoken directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
So why should SA be expected to choose? The answer may lie in power.
The US wants SA to remain an important economic partner. It wants US businesses to have opportunities here and it wants Pretoria to consider American interests when making major foreign-policy decisions.
SA, meanwhile, wants investment, trade, technology and access to global markets – without surrendering the freedom to build relationships elsewhere. That is the real balancing act.
It also explains why former president Thabo Mbeki and SA ambassador to the US Roelf Meyer have become interesting figures in this matter.
Mbeki understands Washington, but he also understands Africa’s determination to speak with its own voice. Perhaps that’s why the US insists he can ease tensions.
This is uncalled for considering SA has a government. It smells like an attempt at regime change.
Meyer is the ambassador and America should engage him productively.
He was one of the key negotiators during SA’s transition into democracy. His legacy is getting opposing sides around the same table.
South Africa should not have to choose between Washington and Beijing. The challenge is to prove that non-alignment means independence.
The real question is not what happens when Trump leaves, but whether the relationship with America can withstand change without affecting Pretoria’s freedom to choose its own partners.
